Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf didn’t see the drop off in production many expected after the team parted ways with QB Russell Wilson heading into the 2022 NFL season. But will the arrival of talented rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba limit his fantasy football ceiling in 2023?
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DK Metcalf’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
It turns out the sky didn’t fall for the Seattle offense without Wilson under center in 2022.
Geno Smith’s career renaissance last season took the league, and fantasy football players, by surprise. Smith’s career year not only helped the team defy expectations, but it kept both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as reliable fantasy options at the WR position.
In PPR formats, Metcalf finished as the WR16, while Lockett was the WR13. Metcalf, in particular, saw a career-high 141 targets and 90 receptions last season.
The question is … can we expect an encore performance from Smith in 2023?
Perfect placement. 🤌#GoHawks x @Boeing pic.twitter.com/9HQETn1VAH
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) August 9, 2023
Don’t get it twisted, Smith proved his naysayers wrong with his 2022 season, but can he build off of that magical year to prove it was for real?
Another big question for this passing attack is what will the impact of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) be for the incumbent WRs?
Over the last three seasons, no pass catcher outside of Metcalf or Lockett has seen more than 63 targets. Do we really see JSN, who is an NFL-ready slot WR, seeing fewer than 80 targets this season? I don’t.
DK has seen 129+ each of the last three seasons … can we confidently say he hits that mark in 2023?
Metcalf has really developed into quite a great playmaker in the NFL, but I do have real questions about whether or not Smith can maintain three fantasy-relevant WRs.
Is Metcalf a Good Fantasy Pick?
Metcalf has really proven to have a reliable fantasy floor the past three seasons, but that was only with one other great WR around.
Sure, Lockett is the oldest of this WR trio, but I think it is highly unlikely that he is going to be phased out of this offense.
JSN is likely to take a sizable chunk of the passing looks in this offense, leaving both Metcalf and Lockett with a bit less to produce with.
That is just the projected effect of JSN; we haven’t really discussed the potential regression from Smith.
Currently, Metcalf is WR17 in our consensus rankings, but I’ve got him at 54 overall on my board because there are some real unknowns with regard to this passing attack in 2023.
Did that burn me a little bit last season? Yes, but I believe his ceiling is a top-15 WR this year, which makes his current price a bit too expensive for me on draft day.
- PFN Consensus: 39th overall
- ADP: 36th overall