Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore has been victimized by poor quarterback play for the entirety of his career. After being traded to the Bears, is Moore finally poised to have that truly transcendent season? What is his fantasy football projection?
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DJ Moore’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Ever since breaking out in 2019, it’s been a steady decline for Moore as a fantasy asset. His PPR fantasy points per game have dropped each of the past three seasons, going from 15.4 in 2019 to 14.1 in 2020, then 14.0 in 2021, and bottoming out at 11.7 last year.
In most circumstances, I’m the first to say a player is what his production says he is. Moore’s production suggests a middling wide receiver talent, but I don’t buy that at all. He’s a very talented player who could be a WR1 in the right environment.
From a fantasy-output standpoint, Moore’s biggest problem has been the lack of touchdowns. From 2019-2021, he scored exactly four times each season, yet his receiving yardage totals were 1,175, 1,193, and 1,157, respectively.
In an ironic twist of fate, Moore set a career-high with seven touchdowns last season but had his worst points per game since his rookie year.
The issue was twofold: volume and QB play.
Targets are a skill statistic. Thus, when we see Moore’s targets drop from 162 in 2021 to 118 in 2022, our first thought might be he didn’t earn them. In actuality, Moore posted a 27.7% target share, the 12th highest in the league. Nothing about his role as the alpha WR1 in the Panthers’ offense changed.
By all accounts, Moore was incredibly dominant. He was targeted on 26.8% of his routes run, 17th best in the NFL. Additionally, he accounted for a whopping 48% of his team’s air yards — tops in the league.
Moore had a respectable 13.3 average depth of target (inside the top 20 in the NFL), and he ran a route on 96.3% of pass plays.
The problem, however, was Moore’s dismal 66% catchable target rate, which was the fourth-lowest among players with at least 50 targets. Moore just never had a chance.
Should You Draft DJ Moore This Year?
Adding Moore to Chicago’s offense is going to greatly benefit Justin Fields. And Fields may very well already be the best quarterback Moore has ever played with.
Fantasy managers should be supremely confident Moore will be better in 2023 than he was in 2022. But that doesn’t mean he’ll suddenly push WR1 numbers, or even be a strong WR2. The truth is, Moore is far better for Fields than Fields is for Moore.
There’s definitely some hope that Moore’s presence can do for Fields what Stefon Diggs did for Josh Allen or what A.J. Brown did for Jalen Hurts. I just don’t think Moore is that guy.
In Chicago, Moore should see an elite target share. There’s no reason he can’t be in the 27-30% range this season. The problem is that target share is likely going to be one of the smallest pies in the NFL.
Last season, Fields averaged just 21.2 pass attempts per game. Even if we were to bump him up to 25 attempts and give Moore a 30% target share — both on the higher end of their respective range of outcomes — that’s still just 7.5 targets per game. Over the course of a 17-game season, Moore wouldn’t even get to 130 targets.
If we apply Moore’s career averages to 130 targets, we’d be looking at a season of about 78 catches, 1,115 yards, and four touchdowns. That’s only 12.5 ppg. Even if Moore is a bit more efficient or scores a couple more touchdowns, he’s probably not going much above 13.0 ppg.
Currently, Moore is my WR32. As the WR22 by ADP, No. 52 overall, I’m well below consensus on Moore.
Taking Moore at WR20 feels like drafting him very close to his ceiling. I just don’t see the realistic outcome where he reaches 15+ ppg. It’s just difficult to project him for enough volume to get there. At best, Moore likely returns par value or perhaps slightly above.
Meanwhile, there are several receivers going around Moore that either offer a higher ceiling or a similar one at a cheaper price. Unless something changes with Moore’s ADP, he’s not someone fantasy managers should target in 2023 drafts.
