DJ Moore was traded this offseason with a plethora of picks from the Carolina Panthers to the Chicago Bears in exchange for the top overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. It’s not every day that you see a productive 26-year-old receiver traded, but Moore leaves an offense that is entering Year 1 of a rebuild for one that is a little further along. Is it time for him to truly realize his potential as a weekly fantasy football difference-maker?
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DJ Moore’s Fantasy Outlook
While he hasn’t finished an individual season better than WR18 on a per-game basis, Moore is WR13 in total points over the past four seasons, thanks to consistent health and an elevated floor. Despite playing in an underwhelming offense with Carolina, he has more games over the past four seasons with over 11 half-PPR fantasy points than fantasy staples in Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, and both Seattle Seahawk star receivers.
In Chicago, Moore has upside in terms of offensive potential, but he again is in trouble when it comes to offensive scheme. The 2022 Bears ran the ball 56.2% of the time, a rate that not only led the NFL but one that hasn’t been topped since Inception debuted in theaters.
Justin Fields is a uniquely gifted athlete (just ask him), and how creative this offense gets will go a long way toward determining if Moore should be treated as a WR2 in fantasy football.
DJ Moore goes 62 yards for the TD 🔥
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) August 12, 2023
On the bright side for Moore managers is the fact that competition for those limited targets is sparse. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are good for occasional big plays, but neither has the profile of a consistent target earner.
Cole Kmet came on strong down the stretch of last season and clearly has developed a connection with Fields, but again, we aren’t looking at a target monster. David Montgomery was a viable target out of the backfield, but he’s in Detroit now. And while I like how Chicago replaced his rushing production, their current backfield is void of a threat in the receiving game.
Robert Tonyan came over from Green Bay this offseason, and although no one is considering him much of an asset, he does have an 11-TD season on his NFL résumé. If volume is going to be an overall problem by way of play-calling in Chicago, touchdowns are going to be increasingly important for Moore, and Tonyan is certainly a legitimate threat the closer to paydirt this offense gets.
Is There Enough Volume in Chicago To Create WR Upside?
My guess is that you are unaware that 12 times last season a player saw at least six targets in a Fields start. Despite a rush rate that defies football in 2023 and losing the time of possession battle for the season, there was still a guy getting a decent number of looks on a weekly basis.
Even if the Bears don’t open things up this season, their investment in Moore suggests that he’s a great bet to be on the receiving end of the majority of those mid-to-high target games. Plus, we know he’s talented enough to make the most of those opportunities.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Moore at His ADP?
I’m interested, yep! I mentioned that crazy rush rate (56.2%) from last season — only one other team was even over 50%. That means that Chicago could regress in a major way and still be among the run-heaviest teams in the league.
It’s reasonable, if not likely, to think that the Bears explore what Fields can do with his arm more in 2023. From Week 10 on last season, he completed 66.7% of passes thrown from the pocket, a significant growth from his 60.6% rate through nine weeks.
MORE: Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts 2023
We can’t overlook the fact that, by trading the top overall pick, the Bears are betting not only on Fields but also Moore. The franchise itself is motivated to have that trade payoff, and that’s never a bad thing.
Moore is currently being drafted in the early fifth round as the 23rd receiver off the board. That’s a reasonable asking price that is ahead of wide receivers I view as carrying more risk into the 2023 season (Christian Watson being my primary example).