DJ Moore’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

It took six years, but Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore finally had that true breakout season fantasy football managers have been hoping for. With a few more years to go firmly in his prime, how highly should dynasty managers value Moore going forward?

DJ Moore’s Dynasty Outlook

Moore has been an incredibly frustrating fantasy asset for pretty much his entire career. As a rookie, he registered 788 receiving yards, putting him on track for at least a good career, and possibly even a great one.

As a sophomore, Moore took the type of leap that superstars take. He went from 9.8 fantasy points per game to 15.4 points per game, finishing as the overall WR14. Surely Moore would go on to be an annual WR2 at worst.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. Things took an unfavorable turn for the talented receiver. Moore regressed (from a fantasy standpoint) in 2020 and 2021, averaging 14.1 and 14.0 points, respectively, in those two seasons.

In dynasty, we want to buy talent even in bad situations. Situations can and often do improve, but bad players are unlikely to suddenly become good players. Yet, while in Carolina, Moore kept finding himself in bad situation after bad situation. He saw coaching changes and quarterback changes. None of it made things better.

In 2022, fantasy managers were hit with the worst-case scenario for Moore. He completely bottomed out, averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game. Despite playing in all 17 games, he only managed 63 catches for 888 yards. If not for a career-high seven touchdowns, his season would’ve been even worse.

The start of Moore’s career coincided with the tail end of Cam Newton’s. After Newton, Moore dealt with the likes of Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield. Not exactly an all-star lineup.

Just as fantasy managers were ready to accept that Moore was never happening, we got a glimmer of hope. Well, more than a glimmer. Moore’s trade to Chicago before last season provided Moore with a fresh start.

I will admit I was skeptical that QB Justin Fields on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league would be the key to unlocking Moore. While Fields may not be the greatest passer, he’s far superior to what Moore had experienced earlier in his career.

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In the end, talent won out. Moore set career highs in just about everything. He caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 16.9 fantasy points per game. He averaged 2.34 yards per route run (16th in the league) and 10.0 yards per target (ninth).

Although he’s now entering his seventh NFL season, Moore is only 27. He also has a skill set that I expect to age rather well. I wouldn’t start worrying about Moore’s ability fading until he’s at least 31. That gives him a good 4-5 years left of top-level production.

Moore’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Moore fall in the dynasty WR landscape heading into the next stage of the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Moore sits in comparison to other top names at the position in PPR scoring.

1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
6) Puka Nacua | LAR
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Tyreek Hill | MIA
9) A.J. Brown | PHI
10) Drake London | ATL
11) Malik Nabers | FA
12) Chris Olave | NO
13) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
14) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
15) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Rome Odunze | FA
18) DK Metcalf | SEA
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) Tank Dell | HOU
21) Nico Collins | HOU
22) Rashee Rice | KC
23) Tee Higgins | CIN
24) Jordan Addison | MIN
25) Zay Flowers | BAL

Should You Trade Moore in Dynasty?

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The arrow is firmly pointing up on the Bears’ offense. The team is finally taking the right steps toward creating a potential scoring machine. Bears fans should be excited. Fantasy managers … maybe not so much.

If you look back at Moore’s career, this past season is clearly the outlier. However, it’s also the most recent one — and the one in which he found himself in the best situation.

That situation was set to improve even more in 2024. The prospect of Moore operating as the clear top option for Caleb Williams with minimal target competition was very exciting. If the Bears do end up drafting Williams, and he is as good as advertised, Moore legitimately had 18 points-per-game upside. Suddenly, though, he has significant target competition.

I do believe Moore to be a true WR1. While he saw a top-10 target share at 28.9%, that amounted to just 136 targets. For comparison, Moore saw 162 targets in 2021, yet his target share was actually lower at 28.4%, and he averaged 2.9 fewer points per game.

With the Bears trading Fields and presumably drafting Williams, we should expect them to throw more. Unfortunately, those passes aren’t exclusively going Moore’s way anymore.

The Bears’ first major free agency move was to sign elite pass-catching back, D’Andre Swift. While Swift may not be a direct threat to Moore, he’s going to command more targets than a typical two-down plodder.

Their second big move was far more impactful: The Bears traded for Keenan Allen.

Moore still should be the WR1, but this is now firmly a 1A/1B scenario. Given that Allen is 32 years old, he won’t be around long. However, Moore could be 28 years old before he potentially has WR room all to himself again.

Last season, Allen commanded a 32% target share. He averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game. It was the best season of his career. He’s going to negatively impact Moore’s fantasy value. The question for dynasty managers is how much and for how long?

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Williams can scramble when needed, but he’s nowhere near the runner Fields was. If Chicago does opt for Williams over the other QBs, we could see as many as 100 more pass attempts for the Bears’ offense. That should help mitigate some of the target share decreases Moore will inevitably see.

With that said, Moore’s perceived fantasy value may be greater than his actual value. Now is a perfect time to float him out there and see what you can get in return. Don’t give away Moore. He’s very talented, and Allen won’t be around for long. But if you can turn Moore into — say — Puka Nacua or Garrett Wilson, that’s a move worth making.