The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 19 weeks of data, could this week be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Divisional NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Divisional Round picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
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- Texans/Chiefs under 7.5 first quarter points
- Matthew Stafford under 225.5 passing yards
David Bearman’s Picks
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- Rams +6
- Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 with Lions/Commanders over 49.5
Jason Katz’s Picks
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- Joe Mixon under 62.5 rushing yards
- Jared Goff under 271.5 passing yards
- Brian Robinson Jr. under 37.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen over 236.5 passing yards
- Khalil Shakir over 4.5 receptions
- Justice Hill over 6.5 rushing yards
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Katz: After Joe Mixon ran for 106 yards against a solid Chargers run defense, it can be easy to forget what he looked like the previous month. In Mixon’s final three games of the season (excluding Week 18 when the starters played one drive), he ran for 23, 57, and 26 yards.
All season, Mixon torched bad run defense, but struggled against good ones. The Chiefs allowed the third fewest-rushing yards per game this season and already held Mixon to 57 yards in their first meeting.
As if that isn’t reason enough, let’s really analyze Mixon’s performance last week. He did have over 100 yards, but it took him 25 carries to get there. More importantly, Mixon had 37 rushing yards entering the fourth quarter. Only after the lead become insurmountable did Mixon start to rack up the chunk gains. That’s not going to happen against the Chiefs as 8.5-point underdogs.
Pick: Joe Mixon under 62.5 rushing yards
Bearman: I do not do teasers often. In fact, I am not sure I have bet one this year. There are very few spots where it’s worth doing, and I usually am not in that mindset. However, with only four games on the board and the lines being as tight as they are, we need to get creative here.
The Chiefs are laying -8.5 and if you’ve been laying that much with the Chiefs this year, you are out of money. However, betting against Mahomes, Reid, and Co. in the postseason is also not a winning strategy. So, let’s bet what the Chiefs have done a lot and win close games, moving it down six points in a two-team, six-point teaser through the key number of three, the only type of teaser I entertain.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 with Lions/Commanders over 49.5 in a six-point teaser
Soppe: This game, in the early going at the very least, is a matter of what you make of the trend I highlighted in the DFS and Fantasy Playoff Cheat Sheet this week:
Texans’ highest first-half dropback rates, 2024:
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- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
Does this trend suggest that Bobby Slowik is content to put this team’s fate in the hands of C.J. Stroud? It certainly seems that way, but we saw this strategy net very little against the elite teams (Houston scored 21 points in eight quarters against the Chiefs and Ravens), and it resulted in under 51 minutes of possession across those two games.
Stay stubborn or try to limit the possession count?
I lean the latter and the trends back me up.
First quarter time of possession per play (in seconds, so higher numbers reflect a slower tempo) for teams closing as a 6+ point underdog:
- 2020: 35.2 seconds
- 2021: 35.7
- 2022: 36.1
- 2023: 36.7
- 2024: 38.1
We are getting slower every year and this downtick is logical to me — in an offensively driven league, the best defense can simply not letting the opposing offense get on the field.
We know that the Chiefs’ offense has lacked some of the explosion this year that we’ve seen in years past. Much of that stems from their warming up to opponents, a metric that has been moving in the wrong direction for more than just this season:
Chiefs points per Q1 drive
- 2021: 3.05
- 2022: 2.27
- 2023: 1.87
- 2024: 1.67
If you’re curious, their scoring post-first quarter this season (2.43) is in line with what they’ve produced since 2021 (2.46). I’m more confident in betting on the Chiefs to take it slow out of the gate than betting against an Andy Reid dynastic team to struggle for 60 minutes.
At the end of the day, we are essentially fading a touchdown on either end. It’s unlikely that we get three fully flushed out possessions that all net made field goals. Neither of these teams is a top-20 red-zone offense in terms touchdown rate. With Houston ranking third in net yards per punt, we could be looking at some long fields that are less likely to result in six points than others.
Pick Under 7.5 first-quarter points
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Bearman: For the second leg of the teaser, there is no obvious play, but since I am usually adverse to betting overs, I am going to make one look better as part of the teaser. The Lions and Commanders are going to score and score often. If I was forced to bet the total, I would bet the over 55.5, but that would be a first for me betting something that high, so let’s go with 49.5.
Taking Week 18 out of the equation since Jayden Daniels played less than a half and Brian Robinson played two snaps, the last three and five of the last six Commanders games have gone over 50, with three of them hitting 60+. Oh, and they are playing a Lions offense that is first in points per game, averaging 33.2 a game, second in yards per game and sixth in PFN’s Offensive + metric.
Four of the last five Lions games went over 50 as well, with three of them hitting 65+. The two teams average 61.7 PPG between them. I might yet take this over 55.5, but for now I am taking them as the second teaser leg.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 with Lions/Commanders over 49.5 in a six-point teaser
Katz: The Lions obviously have an offense explosive enough to propel Jared Goff over this number on big plays. If that happens, so be it, because this number is simply too high.
This is an overreaction to Goff’s last five games of the season when he threw for 283, 494, 336, 303, and 231.
You may notice the 231 as the outlier there. The Lions beat the Vikings 31-9. Three of the other four games were one score games, with the lone outlier being a very efficient 336 yards on 32 attempts against the Bears.
There’s another factor not being properly accounted for, too. David Montgomery is expected to play this week.
The Commanders allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game this season and, despite their victory last week, allowed Bucky Irving to run for 77 yards on 17 carries, while limiting Baker Mayfield to under 200 yards passing for the first time since Week 10.
I expect a lot of Jahmyr Gibbs this week. Unless the Commanders are able to take a lead into the second half, Goff’s volume won’t be there to push 275 passing yards.
Pick: Jared Goff under 271.5 passing yards
Katz: The Commanders have five losses this season. Brian Robinson only played in three of them, posting rushing totals of 40, 63, and 13. In the games he missed, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols combined to rush for 30 yards in one and 51 yards in the other. Washington does not move the ball well on the ground in losses.
I really like Jayden Daniels and think this Commanders team has a very bright future…but they are not ready to upend the Lions. As 8.5-point underdogs, the Commanders are unlikely to have much opportunity to pound Robinson. When they do, he will run into a Lions defense that allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
Robinson only had 16 yards on 10 carries against the Bucs last week and that was in a game where the Commanders had neutral game script throughout. In negative game script, we should see even more Austin Ekeler, making it very difficult for Robinson to get anywhere near 38 rushing yards.
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. under 37.5 rushing yards
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Bearman: I was all over the Rams last week getting points and pretty much nailed how it was going to go. This is definitely going to be a step up in competition for Sean McVay, Matt Stafford and the Rams, which is hard to even write considering the Vikings won 14 games.
But the experience is much different. Whereas, I figured the Vikings’ lack of playoff experience and how poorly they played vs. Detroit would come into play in the Wild Card round, that’s not necessarily the case in Philly.
For one, they have home-field advantage and they also have plenty of playoff experience. However, they didn’t look all that good vs. the Packers, especially on offense. This bet is more about how underrated the Rams are than what Eagles might show up. As I noted last week, people are sleeping on the Rams, who have a Super Bowl-winning QB and coach, dominant WRs, a stud RB and, as you saw Monday night, an aggressive, young defense.
The Eagles are loaded too, but something is just off there on offense. When Barkley is running wild, it’s hard to beat them, but if the Rams can keep him under 100 yards, the Eagles’ passing game has been a mess. I expect this to be a tight, low-scoring affair, so I will take the six points.
Pick: Rams +6
Soppe: Stepping in front of the Rams feels dangerous, and Bearman brings up some good points, so I’m instead going to highlight a prop that I think has a good shot at cashing regardless of how this game plays out.
Matthew Stafford has thrown for under 210 yards in four straight games, struggles that, not surprisingly, coincide with Father Time taking a pound of flesh from Cooper Kupp (in those games: five catches and 10 targets across 87 routes).
The level of separation has been lacking, and no matter what you think is the root of that problem (age, a lingering injury, general fatigue), nothing in his profile suggests that a major bounce-back is coming in this spot against a swarming defense that is hitting its stride at the perfect time.
For the season, Philadelphia ranks fifth in pressure rate when not blitzing, a specific split that speaks to their ability to generate heat without compromising their secondary. This allows them to pay plenty of attention to Puka Nacua. Given the trajectory of this offense, that’s how you slow down this Rams aerial attack.
Nacua is, of course, capable of winning off the line of scrimmage and getting open, but without a Robin to his Batman, that task gets much more difficult, something that is proven by Stafford’s fall-off in these specific spots (pressured but not blitzed) when comparing this year to last:
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- 2023: 7.7 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions
- 2024: 5.2 yards per attempt, on touchdown, five interceptions
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He was great in this regard against Miami back in Week 10, but if you remove that game, he’s completed just 30.4% of passes in such spots since the beginning of November (for reference, as a Ram, he has completed 49.6% of these none-blitzed pressure throws).
I worry very much about his efficiency in this spot, which means I’m essentially fading chunk gains. An offense like this with high-level playmakers is obviously capable of such gains, but their odds of ripping them off in this matchup are low.
How are big plays made in the passing game? Generally speaking, it’s either a lot of air yards or a lot of YAC, right?
Well, the Birds rank second in completion percentage allowed on balls thrown 20+ yards and second in average YAC. This number may not feel all that high, but with efficiency an uphill battle and the potential for the Eagles to dictate tempo with Saquon Barkley (302 total yards in the first meeting), I think what we got from Stafford last week (209 passing yards) is on the higher end of projectable expectations this weekend.
Pick: Matthew Stafford under 225.5 passing yards
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Katz: I went back and forth on this one before making it an official play. Josh Allen has gone over this number eight times this season, so it’s not like this is a ridiculous line.
In the Bills’ first meeting against the Ravens, Allen threw for just 180 yards. However, that game was in Baltimore and it was never competitive, with the Bills losing 35-10.
This game should be much closer, and we’ve seen the Bills willing to air it out when the situation calls for it.
The same process for the Shakir bet applies. Against the Ravens league-best run defense allowing the fewest rushing yards per game, this should be one of those times where Josh Allen has 35+ attempts.
He got to 272 yards last week against a very good Broncos pass defense on just 26 attempts. If the volume is there this week, we could see him go over 300.
Pick: Josh Allen over 236.5 passing yards
Katz: When these teams met back in Week 4, Khalil Shakir only caught four passes on five targets. That game also wasn’t competitive, with the Ravens blowing out the Bills 35-10.
In Buffalo the second time around, I expect a much closer contest.
The Bills have been more run-heavy this season with a 46% neutral game script run rate. However, they are willing to go pass heavy when the game plan calls for it. Against the Ravens league-best run defense allowing the fewest rushing yards per game, this should be one of those times where Josh Allen has 35+ attempts.
Shakir spin cycle 🌪️ pic.twitter.com/tOm3AbHCPF
— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2025
Shakir has been Allen’s favorite target all season. While the Ravens pass defense has improved since the first half of the season, Shakir sees enough manufactured targets that he should be able to clear this number rather easily.
Pick: Khalil Shakir over 4.5 receptions
Katz: This is a game that should feature a lot of points. In the regular season, Justice Hill averaged 3.1 carries per game. He handled six of them against the Steelers last week.
6.5 is a shockingly low number for a talented player who can easily hit this one on just one carry.
Hill had four carries for 18 yards during the first meeting between these two teams. He played 39% of the snaps against the Steelers. Hill should be on the field enough to give himself 3-4 chances to get a measly seven yards.
Pick: Justice Hill over 6.5 rushing yards
