Since entering the NFL, Diontae Johnson has been an elite route runner and separator. Unfortunately, Johnson’s fantasy football production hasn’t always matched his talent. Now embarking on the second phase of his career with the Carolina Panthers, what does Johnson’s 2024 projection look like?
Diontae Johnson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.5
- Receptions: 84
- Receiving Yards: 966
- Receiving TDs: 4.8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Johnson This Year?
Three years ago, Johnson averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game. He had arrived and was poised to be a perennial WR2, at worst. Then, Ben Roethlisberger retired, and Johnson was saddled with two years of some of the worst quarterback play you will ever see.
Now, fantasy managers are over it. Johnson finished as the overall WR39 each of the past two seasons, averaging 10.6 and 11.8 fantasy ppg, respectively.
Johnson actually had the most efficient season of his career last year, averaging 14.1 yards per reception. That’s great, except for the part where he also had a career-low 23.5% target share.
The man needs volume, and he deserves it.
It’s easy to dismiss Johnson as overrated and his 2021 season as a fluke. To be fair, it’s extremely likely it will end up being his best year. But I caution fantasy managers to not mistake Johnson’s underwhelming fantasy finishes for a lack of ability.
Per ESPN Analytics: since 2021, new Panthers WR Diontae Johnson ranks first in the league in “Open Score”, measuring a WR’s “likelihood to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted.”
🔗 https://t.co/Jbnb5siweb pic.twitter.com/yi5YTI37FY
— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) June 19, 2024
Johnson also registered a full green route tree in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. For those unfamiliar, that means he was successful in winning at every conceivable route.
There’s an argument to be made that Johnson is the single best route runner in the NFL. Talent is obviously important, and I would strongly argue there’s no denying he’s incredibly talented.
But we’ve seen time and time again that talent is only part of the equation. Situation and opportunity matter as much, if not more.
Johnson’s situation was as bad as it gets over the past two seasons. Is Bryce Young an improvement? Well, I don’t think he can be worse.
We just saw Adam Thielen post elite WR1 numbers for half a season before falling off, likely due to the fact that he was 33 years old. Johnson now steps into the unquestioned WR1 role for the Panthers. There’s a very real chance he sees a 30% target share.
In my projections, I gave Johnson a 25.5% target share, which I consider a conservative estimate. His only competition for targets are a 34-year-old Thielen and rookie first-rounder Xavier Legette.
Even with the Panthers having a passing TD projection of just 21, Johnson projected out at 12.76 fantasy points per game. That puts him at WR36 in my projections, the exact same spot as he lands in the PFN consensus projections. He gets there by catching 85 passes for 983 yards and 5.5 touchdowns.
This may seem unexciting, but Johnson’s ADP sits at WR38. He’s the unquestioned WR1 on a team that projects to be trailing a lot, and thus, throwing, for a former No. 1 overall pick QB.
The Panthers have a new head coach in Dave Canales. He helped orchestrate last year’s Baker Mayfield revival. After being written off, Mayfield propelled Mike Evans to a top-12 season.
What if Young takes a massive step forward? What if Young is merely as good as 2023 Mayfield? It’s very easy to envision a world where Johnson smashes his projections. At worst, it’s difficult to envision a world where he finishes below his ADP.
Essentially, Johnson is being drafted at his floor. Not every player going at their floor is a priority target — they need to actually have meaningful upside. Fortunately, Johnson does.
Unless something changes with Johnson’s ADP, I plan to draft him in literally every league. There is zero risk — only upside. You should do the same…unless you’re in one of my leagues.
