Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson is coming off a dreadful season. He went from a WR1 to not even a WR3, failing to score a touchdown in 2022. Can Johnson bounce back in 2023? What is his fantasy football projection?
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Diontae Johnson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Back in 2021, Johnson was No. 1 atop my “my guys” list. There was no player I wanted more and no player I drafted more.
Coming off a breakout 2020 season, Johnson taking another step forward in 2021 was just too obvious. Sure enough, he was one of the best values in fantasy that season, catching 107 passes for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns. For fantasy, he averaged 17.2 PPR points per game, finishing as the overall WR8.
It pains me to abandon my guys, especially when it has nothing to do with them being old or lacking talent. But in 2022, I was completely out on Johnson, drafting him nowhere.
While I’m certainly pleased with the correct take, I never could’ve imagined Johnson would go an entire season without catching a single touchdown. That has nothing to do with a lack of ability — it’s just bad luck.
Last season, Johnson pretty much hit rock bottom in production. He caught 86 passes for 882 yards, averaging 10.6 ppg, and finished as the overall WR39.
So, what went wrong?
Johnson’s volume decreased, but not by an amount that would suggest a 6.6 drop in fantasy points per game. His target share was still 27%, good for 13th in the league.
Johnson’s targets per route run rate dropped from 28.5% to 26.3%, still very good. His average depth of target actually increased from 8.2 to 10.6. The primary issue was the touchdowns and catch rate.
The former went from eight to zero. The latter went from 63.5% to 58.5%. Someone who operates as close to the line of scrimmage as Johnson should not have a catch rate below 60%.
Should You Draft Diontae Johnson This Year?
Suffice it to say Johnson won’t score zero touchdowns this year. But he’ll need more than a couple of touchdowns to bounce back. Johnson needs Kenny Pickett to progress as a passer so he can be a bit more efficient, and he’ll need the volume.
The Steelers did add Allen Robinson this offseason, but he’s completely cooked and has been since 2021. This passing attack should once again be Johnson as the possession guy, George Pickens as the stretch Z, and Pat Freiermuth as the third option.
Last season, the Steelers had a below-average neutral-game-script pass rate of 53%. However, they still attempted 571 passes. Ideally, Pittsburgh either stays around that number or increases it slightly. Unfortunately, they want to be a run-first team.
The Steelers beefed up their offensive line and drafted an excellent blocking tight end in Darnell Washington. I fear their overall pass attempts may drop in 2023.
Last year was already a steep decline from their 60% neutral-game-script pass rate in 2021, a year in which the Steelers attempted 664 passes. Pickett is never getting close to those levels.
As a result, expecting Johnson to return to 2021 productivity is unrealistic. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if 2021 ends up being the best fantasy season of Johnson’s career.
With that said, Johnson is back on my radar for the 2023 fantasy season. By no means should anyone expect a WR1 finish. He may only be a WR3. As always, it comes down to cost.
Johnson has a WR34 ADP, No. 85 overall. That’s slightly above where he finished last year. Do we really think he’s going to be any worse than that?
I’m supremely confident that not only is the answer “no,” but he’ll beat that ADP. By how much remains to be seen, but I’m all about drafting players at their floor. And that’s exactly what we’re doing with Johnson here.
Once again, he finds himself firmly on my list of “my guys.” Johnson’s the cheapest he’s been since his rookie year and carries very little risk.
While I’m not a believer in Pickett, Johnson would only need a moderate step forward in performance from him to be a strong WR3. And if I’m wrong about Pickett and he progresses very well, Johnson has mid-WR2 upside. I have him as my WR27 and fantasy managers should be salivating at the opportunity to draft a receiver this talented this late.