While the target leader of the Steelers in 2020, Diontae Johnson struggled to make the most of those opportunities for fantasy football managers. Now entering his third year in the NFL, what is Johnson’s outlook in 2021, and should fantasy managers select him at his current ADP?
Diontae Johnson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
When I look back at Johnson’s 2020 season, I can’t help but be underwhelmed. Sure, he was the WR21 (14.8 ppg), but it could have been so much better than what it was.
Johnson not only led the Steelers in targets (144) but was sixth-highest in the NFL. In fact, he saw double-digit targets in 10 of 15 games. However, of the 35 receivers who saw 100+ targets, Johnson was 14th in receptions (88), 29th in catch percentage (61%), 24th in yards (923), 34th in yards per target (6.41), and 33rd in fantasy points per target (1.54).
With that said, from Week 10 and on, he was the WR6 in PPR (17.8 ppg), including a mid-game benching due to drops in Week 14. Johnson led the league in dropped passes in 2020.
Johnson likely should have had his breakout season last year. If JuJu Smith-Schuster had signed elsewhere, it could have happened this season. When you also add Chase Claypool into the mix, all three receivers’ ceilings are capped in 2021 for fantasy. Although I expect Johnson to be in that WR2/3 range this season, I am not sure his fantasy outlook is the highest on the team.
Diontae Johnson’s fantasy projection for 2021
When selecting a receiver, consider the scoring system of your league. If you are in a full PPR league, high-volume receivers with higher catch rates get a significant boost up. On the Steelers, this would be Johnson. It negatively impacts someone like Claypool, whose game relies on deeper targets with Smith-Schuster in the middle.
What benefits Johnson, while not efficient, is that the Steelers are more than capable of sustaining all three receivers. In PPR leagues, chasing volume is never a bad idea — receptions are incredibly valuable. While the Steelers were just below the league average in points per target (1.58 to 1.62), no one attempted more passes (656), which helps to mitigate the middle-of-the-road efficiency.
At the center of that passing game will be Johnson, as he was Ben Roethlisberger’s top target in an offense that got the ball out of the QB’s hands quickly (2.3 second time to throw). Johnson’s 8.0 aDOT (average depth of target) is the perfect complement to this style of play.
I expect to see Johnson once again lead the team in targets with 135-145 and end the season around 90-95 receptions, 970 yards, and 7 touchdowns.
Diontae Johnson’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Johnson is currently being selected at an ADP of 55.8 in PPR formats. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Johnson is the WR19 with a 42.95 ADP. According to FleaFlicker, Johnson’s ADP is 55.5.
Should you draft Johnson in 2021 for fantasy?
The Steelers are an enigma in 2021. They are a team that believes they can compete in 2021. Whether or not that is reality is a different situation entirely. In all honesty, they may be the third-best team in their own division.
I believe the Steelers will try to be a more balanced team in 2021. With that said, the passing volume will still be there. But as I said, that will be split between three talented receivers. Johnson is the second WR coming off the boards behind Smith-Schuster at his current ADP, and given the two, I would take Johnson.
In PPR formats, it’s challenging to overlook the number of targets that Johnson is likely to receive in 2021. From a pure efficiency standpoint, I could see those rise in 2021. If this were to happen, Johnson could very well be a WR2 in fantasy, but his lack of big plays could keep him out of the upper echelon of fantasy receivers.
When on the clock in drafts, I would go two different ways. Either select the Steelers WR that falls the furthest, or go for the sure volume in Johnson. I don’t think you can go wrong with either option.