Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson is coming off a breakout season where he finished as a WR1. With Ben Roethlisberger retired and his replacement either journeyman Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett, what is Johnson’s fantasy football outlook for Johnson in 2022, and should managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Diontae Johnson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
On the list of players I wanted on as many rosters as possible last season, Johnson was first. He’s one of my favorite players in the league, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s an incredible wide receiver either.
Johnson followed up his second-year breakout with a third-year leap. He averaged 9.8 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie, 14.8 as a sophomore, and 17.2 last season, good for a WR8 finish (minimum eight games played).
More important than the final numbers in fantasy is the “why.” What about Johnson suggested the improvement? In addition to his fantasy production increasing each year, so did his volume. Johnson’s target share went from 19% to 22% to 28.5%, the fourth-highest in the league last season. He also finished third in snap share and led the NFL in routes run.
We know that Johnson is definitively very good at football. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean he will continue to ascend in his fourth NFL season. The Steelers underwent a pretty significant change as Ben Roethlisberger will not be their starting quarterback for the first time in nearly two decades. Should fantasy managers still value Johnson as a WR1?
How the Steelers’ depth chart impacts Diontae Johnson’s fantasy projection for the season
Following Big Ben’s retirement, the Steelers have made two efforts at solving their quarterback problem. First, they signed Mitch Trubisky. Second, they drafted Kenny Pickett 20th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Regardless of who starts, we can’t just assume Johnson’s production will be the same.
What we can assume is that his target share will remain elite. Targets are a skill statistic. The reason Johnson gets targeted so often is that he’s one of the best in the NFL at getting open. His best ability is getting open against man coverage. Johnson was 10th in the NFL in target rate against man. His ability to win 1-on-1 will provide the limited Trubisky or the rookie Pickett with the knowledge they can almost always throw it to Johnson when he’s singled up.
How will a quarterback change impact Johnson’s fantasy outlook?
Some fantasy managers will be rightfully concerned that a new quarterback may not lock in on Johnson as Roethlisberger did. Hopefully, I can dismiss those concerns. The 2021 version of Roethlisberger was a shell of his former self. The 2022 versions of Trubisky and Pickett are both better than 2021 Big Ben.
Trubisky and Pickett don’t have to be gunslingers to improve upon the 8.2-yard average depth of target Johnson saw from Roethlisberger last season. Johnson is capable of winning downfield. Roethlisberger just wasn’t able to throw downfield anymore.
From a fantasy output perspective, a wide receiver’s prime is from ages 25-28. Johnson is entering his age-26 season and coming off the first WR1 finish of his career. There’s a chance Johnson can maintain his volume while improving his efficiency. If that happens, he could be in line for his best season yet. With that said, I spent the entire month of July souring on Johnson.
Johnson’s ADP for 2022
On the surface, it seems like Johnson is a value. Johnson’s ADP is in the early-fourth round. Despite coming off a WR1 season, he’s not going much earlier than he went in 2021 fantasy drafts.
While I do think Johnson will maintain his status as the clear alpha WR1 on the Steelers, I am worried about his total volume. It’s not the target share but the total targets. Why? I have a very hard time envisioning the Steelers throwing the ball 664 times with Trubisky and Pickett. In fact, I’d be surprised if they got anywhere near 600 pass attempts.
Entering the season, Johnson is a slight value on his ADP in terms of where he sits in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. He’s currently 35th overall as the WR15, with all of our analysts having him just inside their top 40. I’m slightly lower with him at WR17, which is a ranking I thought would have me mostly avoiding Johnson but is not that far off from ADP.
It would only take Johnson’s target share ticking down a percentage point or two along with a notable decrease in overall pass attempts to drop him significantly and render him a bad value at his ADP. Combine that with him likely losing the layup targets he got from Roethlisberger that were close to the line of scrimmage, and this is a player I don’t love the current value on nearly as much as I did heading into last season.