Carolina Panthers WR Diontae Johnson was one of many players impacted by free agency. One of the most gifted route runners in the league, Johnson’s fantasy football value has taken a hit since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Where does Johnson’s dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Diontae Johnson’s Dynasty Outlook
It was great for me that the one year Johnson was “my guy,” and I drafted him everywhere in 2021, he averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR8. For dynasty managers who thought that was the start of Johnson having a prolonged tenure as at least a WR2, what followed has been extremely disappointing.
Mason Rudolph throws a STRIKE across the middle and Diontae Johnson takes it to the house! 🔥
The #Steelers regain the lead 👀#HereWeGo
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 6, 2024
The first three years of Johnson’s career went exactly as one might expect from a young, talented receiver. He went from 9.8 fantasy points per game to 14.8 to 17.2. His target volume, receptions, yardage, and touchdowns increased every year.
But after the 2021 season, Roethlisberger retired. Given how he looked in his final season, the bar was pretty low for improved quarterback play…or so I thought.
Although Roethlisberger was incapable of pushing the ball downfield late in his career, he was still able to command an offense. If Pittsburgh could get a quarterback who could push the ball downfield more, Johnson could really thrive.
Johnson’s 2021 season hinged entirely on massive volume underneath. He saw 169 targets, catching 107 passes for 1,161 yards. That was good for 10.9 yards per reception.
Unfortunately, 2022 was a massive step backward for the talented WR. Somehow, despite the Steelers starting a first-round rookie quarterback, the QB play got worse…much, much worse.
Johnson saw his yards per reception decline again to 10.3. Although he still saw an elite 27% target share, his catch rate dipped by 4.8% due to inaccurate targets, and he didn’t score a single touchdown. This resulted in a very underwhelming 10.6 fantasy points per game.
Heading into 2023, I was bullish on a Johnson bounce-back campaign. QB Kenny Pickett was entering his second season, and Johnson clearly remained the best receiver on the team.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
Things were different last year, as Johnson saw deeper targets. His 12.7 aDOT (average depth of target) was 26th in the league. However, he missed four games due to a strained hamstring and saw his target share drop to 23.5%.
This, combined with the overall decrease in volume from the Steelers’ passing game, led to him improving to just 11.8 fantasy points per game.
Johnson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Johnson sit in the dynasty WR landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Johnson lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
6) Puka Nacua | LAR
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Tyreek Hill | MIA
9) Malik Nabers | FA
10) Drake London | ATL
11) A.J. Brown | PHI
12) Chris Olave | NO
13) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
14) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
15) Rome Odunze | FA
16) Rashee Rice | KC
17) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
18) DJ Moore | CHI
19) DK Metcalf | SEA
20) DeVonta Smith | PHI
21) Tank Dell | HOU
22) Nico Collins | HOU
23) Tee Higgins | CIN
24) Zay Flowers | BAL
25) Jordan Addison | MIN
26) Brian Thomas Jr. | FA
27) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Jayden Reed | GB
30) Davante Adams | LV
31) Amari Cooper | CLE
32) Mike Evans | TB
33) Christian Kirk | JAX
34) Xavier Worthy | FA
35) Marquise Brown | KC
36) Diontae Johnson | CAR
37) Cooper Kupp | LAR
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Troy Franklin | FA
40) Terry McLaurin | WAS
41) Chris Godwin | TB
42) Keenan Allen | CHI
43) Calvin Ridley | TEN
44) Stefon Diggs | BUF
45) Josh Downs | IND
46) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
47) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
48) Adonai Mitchell | FA
Should You Trade Johnson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Johnson? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
I still really like Johnson as a player. He’s one of the best route runners in the league and can get open at will. In dynasty, we want to buy talent even when that talent is in a bad situation.
As Johnson begins this next phase of his career, he’ll do so as a member of the Panthers. It was certainly a rough rookie season for Bryce Young, but the sophomore unquestionably possesses more upside than anyone Johnson has played with post-Roethlisberger.
At worst, this is a lateral move for Johnson for 2024. At best, he’ll now be tethered to a young, ascending quarterback for the remainder of his career.
With that said, there are several uncertainties regarding Johnson’s future. We’ve already covered the fact that Young may not be quite as good as we thought. Even if he is, Johnson is guaranteed nothing beyond this year, as he is set to hit free agency in 2025.
In the short term, I’m cautiously optimistic on Johnson’s fantasy value. On the Panthers, he will be the clear WR1 with his only target competition a 34-year-old Adam Thielen, who completely faded over the second half of last season. Johnson could very well push a 30% target share.
From a long-term perspective, Johnson is entering his age-28 season and will be 29 when he hits free agency. I do think he’ll be able to remain effective until age 32/33, as his skill set doesn’t rely on raw athleticism.
Johnson is a precision route runner who can operate close to the line of scrimmage and rack up short receptions. He should be able to continue to produce well into the latter stages of his career. However, the fact remains he’ll be nearing 30 with only one WR1 season to his name.
I wouldn’t fault any fantasy manager for wanting to move off of Johnson. If you can get something useful in a deal, by all means, take it. But after his performances in the past two seasons, his value is lower than ever.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Given that I believe his situation just improved, I’m cautiously optimistic Johnson’s talent will finally shine through this season, and he can post WR2 numbers for the rest of his fantasy-relevant career.
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