CINCINNATI – The NFL released the list of 2024 compensatory picks on Friday, but one expert believes the NFL made an error in valuation that shorted the Cincinnati Bengals and two other teams.
The league awarded the Bengals two sixth-round comp picks (Nos. 208 and 214), but OverTheCap.com contributor and comp pick expert Nick Korte posted a thread on X (formerly Twitter) that his projections are so far off that he wonders if the NFL Management Council may have made an error.
The compensatory pick formula is a complicated one, as is his explanation for why he thinks the numbers are way off. The comp pick formula weighs players, coaches, and executives lost to other teams against players signed in free agency, with the primary variable being the new contracts signed.
Do the Cincinnati Bengals Deserve a Better Comp Pick?
Korte argues that Jessie Bates III, who signed a four-year, $64 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons, should have been valued as a third-rounder, while the NFL had him as a fourth rounder. The league also had Orlando Brown Jr. as a fourth rounder, therefore he and Bates canceled each other out.
“The players valued in the 3rd round in the compensatory formula are those ranked in the top 5%,” Korte posted. “But if the top 5% was 62 players, the leaguewide # of players considered would have been 1,240—ridiculously too low. That number is usually between ~1,800-2,000. I think it’s ~1,846.”
If Jessie Bates's contract was valued as a 3rd, and Orlando Brown Jr.'s was valued as a 4th, this is what the Bengals' cancellation chart would have looked like: a 3rd and a 6th, instead of two 6ths. pic.twitter.com/ggdirDLfnP
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) March 8, 2024
An error would not be unprecedented for the NFL Management Council.
In 2015, it had what it called a “database error.” And as recently as 2021, it awarded a 33rd comp pick after making an error that shorted the New England Patriots a pick.
As things currently stand, the Bengals will have one pick in Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7 in addition to the three in Round 6.
Because Cincinnati has been so active in free agency lately, this is the first time the team has received a compensatory pick since 2021, when the league awarded the Bengals a fourth rounder that they used to select D’Ante Smith with No. 139.
It’s the first time since 2019 that Cincinnati has received multiple comp picks.
This year’s picks bring the total to 41 that the Bengals have received since the NFL implemented the compensatory program in 1994.
KEEP READING: 2024 NFL Draft Picks by Team
The number of picks won’t change this year, but there is a huge difference between a third- and sixth-round comp pick. The Bengals’ first comp pick would be around No. 98 rather than 208.
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