The Cincinnati Bengals‘ offense and Buffalo Bills‘ defense square off on Sunday afternoon in what will be one of the most anticipated games of the past decade. When they meet, it will have been just three weeks since Damar Hamlin’s terrifying injury. However, a game must be played, and Buffalo must find a way to stop the Bengals’ high-flying passing attack.
From Weeks 7-16, the Bengals posted the highest dropback success rate and the fifth-highest EPA. They accomplished that despite star wideout Ja’Marr Chase missing Weeks 8-12 with an injury. Head coach Zac Taylor and QB Joe Burrow figured out how to pick teams apart with the quick game, but their downfield explosiveness makes them incredibly dangerous to defenses.
In two regular season games against the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati’s longest reception went for 33 yards, a short catch-and-run from Joe Mixon. In the first game, Chase’s long was a 26-yard touchdown over the top of an outstretched cornerback. Tyler Boyd’s 22-yard grab was the only other 20-yard reception from a receiver. In the Wild Card Round, Cincinnati failed to generate a 20-yard pass, keeping Baltimore in the game.
The question is, can Buffalo replicate Baltimore’s game plan?
How the Ravens Laid the Blueprint
We’d seen the Ravens’ defense fall apart at multiple points early in the season. There were growing pains, and those manifested in some awful fourth-quarter collapses. But against the Bengals, Burrow never topped 217 yards and never topped 7.2 yards per attempt over the three contests.
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It’d be easy to say, “Baltimore kept everything in front of them,” and walk away. However, it’s far more complicated than that. And even though the Bills have a better defense than the Ravens by every advanced metric in the books, that doesn’t automatically mean they match up as well against the Bengals.
Bills vs Ravens Defensive Philosophies
Sports Info Solutions tracks defensive coverages from Cover 0-6, red zone, and goal line coverages. Throughout 2022, the Ravens faced 493 attempts playing Cover 0-6. The Bills faced 487 attempts using those same coverages.
Let’s compare the difference in usage rates between the six.
Cover 0: Ravens (21), Bills (6)
Cover 1: Ravens (85), Bills (99)
Cover 2: Ravens (54), Bills (100)
Cover 3: Ravens (149), Bills (113)
Cover 4: Ravens (134), Bills (121)
Cover 5: Ravens (34), Bills (34)
Cover 6: Ravens (16), Bills (14)
At a glance, the two defenses don’t seem all that different. They even blitz at similar rates. Buffalo blitzed 19.4% of the time this season, while Baltimore blitzed 21.3% of the time. Both ranked in the bottom half of the league.
Even their rosters mimic one another. Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith aren’t quite the linebacking duo of Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, but few teams have that kind of athleticism and talent at the position. Tre’Davious White and Marlon Humphrey are both All-Pro talents. Each team has impressive defensive fronts and multiple difference-making safeties.
And yet when you navigate through NFL Gamepass to watch the coach’s tape, the two defenses couldn’t look more different in deployment.
And that might be the Bills’ downfall against the Bengals.
Buffalo’s Aggression Could be Their Undoing
Let’s talk about leverages, folks. The Bills probably wouldn’t be considered an aggressive team because they have a low blitz rate, but they are very aggressive in coverage, whereas Baltimore’s DBs can show aggressiveness from time to time but often opt to maintain leverages over the top.
Buffalo wants to be a gnat in the receiver’s ass. Against most teams, that is a fine tactic. Against Burrow and that group of weapons, it could mean Buffalo’s offense NEEDS to score 30-plus points to keep the game competitive.
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Burrow, Chase, and Higgins can make anybody pay downfield along the sidelines. Baltimore tried their damndest not to let Cincinnati take those shots, let alone hit them. If Buffalo plays their game, they’ll be inviting those lower-percentage throws. The problem is that it’s much less likely a team scores if they cannot generate an explosive play on their drive.
The biggest difference between the two teams is those leverages. The Ravens will “match” routes within their zone assignments, but not with the same amount of chutzpah as the Bills. They elect to stay deep and drive forward when carrying routes vertically, while Bills defenders will trail more often than not, whether there is safety help or not.
The Difference in Pre-Snap Disguise
Losing safety Micah Hyde has been an underrated storyline for the Bills’ defense. Hamlin’s loss also hurts Buffalo’s diversity pre-snap, which means the picture won’t be changing as often for Burrow against Buffalo as it did against Baltimore.
The Ravens tried their best never to show Burrow exactly what they were doing prior to the snap. They parlayed that by running a diverse range of coverages from various pre-snap looks. A few times, that disguise allowed a rush to get home to Burrow. Sometimes it made him think for an extra split-second, and that led to an incompletion or a checkdown.
The Bills will opt for more static coverages. And while there will be disguises, running closed coverages from two-high alignments mostly, they won’t show the same number of pre-snap looks and movements as Baltimore did.
Bills Can’t Just Flip a Switch to Mimic Baltimore
Things simply aren’t that easy. In Madden, you can choose from any defensive playbook under the sun. But in reality, it’s practically impossible to change the identity of a defense from one season to the next, let alone over the course of a few weeks. The Ravens have worked and improved all season to get to that point. Their keys and cues in coverage are particular to how they defend.
A team can’t simply say, “This week, we’re going to play softer and keep things in front of us,” because one’s craft is incredibly specialized at the NFL level. It’s why players can be uber-productive in one situation and fade into irrelevance at a new stop the very next season.
So while Buffalo has Baltimore’s blueprint, they can’t effectively put it to use. That’s not how they’re built to defend. And while they certainly play their share of Cover 3, Tampa 2, and other coverages that aim to keep things in front, their pre-snap alignments often include pressing receivers from those looks.
Buffalo has the talent capable of suffocating even the most explosive passing attacks. But because of their style, it will take Herculean individual efforts from their defensive backfield. We could be in for another thrilling game with scores in the 30s from both teams.