With the final week of the 2024 regular season upon us, we are looking to find teams that still have something to play for and players with incentives and/or recent surges for our DFS lineups this Sunday.
We have one more week of the regular season, which means one more full slate of games for fantasy football. Let’s dive in!
Winning NFL Week 18 Full Slate DFS Lineup
- QB: Justin Herbert
- RB: Kareem Hunt
- RB: Bijan Robinson
- WR: Ladd McConkey
- WR: Terry McLaurin
- WR: Marvin Mims Jr.
- TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo
- FLEX: Jalen McMillan
- DEF: Texans
DFS Strategy: Stacking the Chargers, Justin Herbert
On Saturday, Justin Herbert officially became the NFL’s top passer through the first five seasons of a career (he opened the win over the Patriots by completing 17 of his first 21 passes for 162 yards, along with a pair of scores and a pair of teammate drops).
He also missed Ladd McConkey on what could (should) have been a 23-yard touchdown. Since Week 8, even in a system that can be restrictive at times, Herbert has seven top-12 finishes. We think you can go ahead and adjust that number to eight with the 10th-worst passing defense when it comes to opponent touchdown rate on tap.
We’d love to see the rushing numbers bump up a bit (he cleared 12 yards on the ground just once in December), but with Jim Harbaugh trusting him with more weekly and a career-best yards-per-pass pace, you’re playing Herbert with confidence this week.
In terms of our QB+ rankings, Herbert is fourth overall in the last four weeks – which means he’s peaking at the right time. He’s thrown either 2+ TDs or over 200 yards in 10 of his last 12 starts, and we’re expecting more of the same this week vs. LV.
He’s a Ladd, Ladd Man
Since Week 8, McConkey has been absolutely unstoppable, with an adjusted pace of
- 100 catches
- 1,491 yards
- Nine touchdowns
The only second-year receivers to hit all of those thresholds in NFL history are Justin Jefferson (2021) and Isaac Bruce (1995).
We could be looking at a special receiver who is going to be afforded the ability to grow alongside a franchise quarterback – this is how difference-making fantasy WRs are created. He’s the franchise’s leader in receptions by a rookie, and I’d wager that more history awaits this versatile steal of a draft pick.
We’re playing McConkey this week, understanding that we need to at least monitor reporting out of Los Angeles when it comes to their level of motivation. Thankfully, they have a Harbaugh as their head coach, so we don’t see them laying down early – it’s simply just not in his DNA.
Not-So Scary Terry
Terry McLaurin was locked down last week (one catch on 41 routes). That stinks if it sunk you during your fantasy playoffs and/or set you back during a two-week matchup. We’re sorry for your loss.
Last week, the Commanders won a game in which Olamide Zaccheaus and Zach Ertz were heavily featured and productive (58.3% of the catches and 69.2% of the receiving yards), which could impact how this team is defensed moving forward.
McLaurin cleared 100 yards and scored in Week 12 against Dallas, and with his team playing for seeding, we expect him to be a full-go on Sunday. He’s having a career year (12 touchdown catches are as many as his previous top two seasons combined), and that’s why he’s a bounce-back lock for our lineups in Week 18.
Low Price, High Ceiling: Chigoziem Okonkwo
Few tight ends come with enough big-play potential to offset a low floor, but Chig Okonkwo is the exception. He has three straight games with at least seven targets, and with Mason Rudolph’s average depth of throw trending up (past three games: 5.4 to 6.3 to 8.8), his athletic profile has a direct path to posting top-10 numbers.
Of course, the floor is low, but isn’t that the case for all but maybe five tight ends? Building lineups means betting on some pretty iffy quarterback play, and while Rudolph certainly qualifies as such, we at least have data points that suggest that he is happy to funnel targets to his mismatch of a tight end.
Okonkwo is currently sitting as our TE11 for this weekend, and we don’t have an issue going in this direction as a punt option in DFS contests.