Week 14 kicks off on Thursday night with the 11-1 Detroit Lions hosting the 9-3 Green Bay Packers at Ford Field.
Ahead of this Thursday Night Football showdown, who are the best players to plug in your DFS lineup? Using DraftKings’ prices, let’s build a lineup that could win big on Thursday!
Week 14 TNF DFS Picks
- CAPTAIN: Jahmyr Gibbs, $13,500
- FLEX: David Montgomery, $8,600
- FLEX: Jordan Love, $9,400
- FLEX: Jayden Reed, $7,600
- FLEX: Christian Watson, $6,600
- FLEX: Dontayvion Wicks, $4,200
DFS Strategy: Rolling With Sonic and Knuckles
Trying to decide between Gibbs and Montgomery is a headache, so why not play both?!
Gibbs’ efficiency is nothing short of amazing and splash plays have become the expectation, not the exception. He’s averaging 6.0 yards per carry over his past three games (246 yards on 41 attempts) and has a 15+ yard run in 11 straight games — the only player to have a streak longer than that before the age of 25 was Adrian Peterson, who did so bridging the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Factoring into that streak was a 15-yard score against Green Bay in Week 9. While the Packers run defense has looked good in consecutive weeks (Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane totaled just 45 rushing yards on 18 carries against them), I’m attributing much of that success to a positive game script that I find unlikely to be in effect on Thursday night.
As for Montgomery, he notched his first 20-carry effort since September and once again caught all three of his targets, something he has done in four of five games. As long as this offense is averaging north of four red-zone trips per game and six yards per play, his role as the drive finisher makes him a locked-in fantasy asset that you can bank on.
Montgomery turned 19 touches into 96 yards in the first meeting with the Packers. Asking for double-digit PPR points again on Thursday is plenty fair.
Sonic and Knuckles, do your thing.
Stacking the Packers’ Passing Attack
While DFS is about predicting which players will produce at a high level, it’s also about predicting how the game script will unfold. With this lineup, we’re projecting that the Lions take a significant lead early with multiple scores on the ground and then try to kill the clock with Gibbs and Montgomery, while the Packers pass to try to get back in the game.
If there’s one way to attack the Lions, it’s through the air. Against wide receivers, Detroit is allowing 15.2 receptions per game (which ranks last in the NFL) and 187.8 receiving yards per game (which ranks last in the NFL). Again, a lot of this is due to game scripts: teams are typically trailing against Detroit and pass the ball a ton to try to get back in the game.
Last week on Thanksgiving, Detroit’s defense was lit up by Caleb Williams in the second half, as he totaled 15 completions for 222 yards and three scores. Can Love have similar success against his NFC North rival?
Typically, it’s pretty difficult to predict which Packers wide receivers to play, but the fact that Romeo Doubs is out with a concussion makes this passing attack easier to project.
Reed is the most trustworthy, especially since he posted five catches for 113 yards last time the Lions and Packers faced off. Watson has posted an aDOT of 20+ yards in each of his past four games, so the hope is that he can catch some deep shots. As for Wicks, he was on the field for 88.7% of Green Bay’s snaps last week with Doubs out, and he’ll once again have an opportunity to produce on Thursday night.
Why aren’t we playing Tucker Kraft in this lineup? Well, the Lions have done a terrific job defending tight ends this season.
Against TEs this season, Detroit is allowing the fewest receptions per game (3.5), receiving yards per game (31.2), and touchdowns per game (0.08) of any team in the league. As a result, tight ends are averaging a league-low 3.33 fantasy points per game against the Lions.