We’re stats people here at PFN – and we follow our player models before we follow our hearts. However, this week there are some extremely tough weather conditions (rain, wind) that will heavily impact several game scripts around the league. We’ve seen rain have its way with offensive production as recently as last Thursday night, with many of us still recovering mentally from that game.
So, we’re going to try to avoid the worst of the weather, and that leaves us with some extremely strong bargain plays and enough cash for our number-one ranked player of the week. Let’s go!
Week 17 WInning DFS Lineup
- QB: Jordan Love
- RB: Saquon Barkley
- RB: Aaron Jones
- WR: Jakobi Meyers
- WR: Brian Thomas Jr.
- WR: Dontayvion Wicks
- TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo
- FLEX: Tyjae Spears
- DEF: DOLPHINS
DFS Picks: Stack the Pack
With a JUICY over under total of 48.5 – we’re hitting up the Green Bay Packers who are favored to win in a road matchup against the Minnesota Vikings (does Vegas know something we don’t?). Although Jordan Love hasn’t been blowing minds fantasy-wise, the Vikings are very strong against the run, and we see Love being forced into action if the Packers want to keep up in Minnesota.
Working in Love’s favor is that the blitz-happy Vikings have so much going on around the line of scrimmage that they’re a tough defense when it comes to finishing drives against on the ground, allowing one rushing touchdown for every 48.1 opponent attempts (third-best).
Cheap touchdowns might be needed in this game, as the Vikings are 12-3 with one of the top offenses in the league. Love’s QB+ numbers are actually better on the road than at home this season and combine this with the fact that the Packers have scored over 30 points in each of their last five games, and we think the majority of those Packer points will come from the right arm of Jordan Love.
Week 17 Lineup Lock: Saquon Barkley
As a team, the Giants have 1,603 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 369 carries – Saquon Barkley has turned his 314 carries into 1,838 yards and 13 scores this season. Is that good?
Barkley is nothing short of special, and while we didn’t need 109 rushing yards with two scores in the first quarter last week to remind us of that, it never hurts to get statistical proof when leagues are being decided.
If you’re scrolling through the All-Pro’s box scores and come across the less-than-ideal numbers he produced in the first matchup with Dallas, don’t worry about it. Philadelphia controlled that game and ran the ball effectively (187 yards); it just didn’t need Barkley to do the heavy lifting (36.8% carry share).
With the Eagles still holding out hope for the NFC’s top seed, I’d expect a heavy dose of their RB1 early in this game to remove all doubt from the outcome. He’s a top-five play this week and in the 1.01 conversation for redraft leagues next season.
The BTJ Killer
Who’s been the best rookie WR this season? Malik Nabers? Marvin Harrison Jr? Rome Odunze? Nope. It’s Brian Thomas Jr. season folks – and everybody knows it.
Brian Thomas Jr. is one of three receivers since 2000 to post 1,000 yards and nine touchdown catches through 16 weeks of his rookie season — and they all came from LSU (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021).
WRs in the 24 PPR PPG Club since Week 13:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 26.5 PPG
- Davante Adams: 26.5 PPG
- Justin Jefferson: 26.5 PPG
- Thomas: 24.0 PPG
In his last two games, Thomas has seen a whopping 27 targets. In his last five games, BTJ has 36 catches on 56 targets (not sure if you caught that – but that’s over TEN targets per game) and this is exactly the type of volume we dream of – especially when facing the reeling 3-12 Tennessee Titans.