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    DeVonta Smith Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Smith in Fantasy This Year?

    Following a massive step forward last season, can DeVonta Smith put together another strong campaign? Should fantasy managers target him this season?

    Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith is coming off a stellar sophomore season. He was one of the best values in 2022 fantasy drafts, but can Smith build on his breakout and ascend to even greater heights in 2023? What is Smith’s fantasy football projection?

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    Devonta Smith’s 2023 Fantasy Projection

    Entering last season, there were concerns as to whether Smith would be anything more than just a solid fantasy WR3. At 6’0″, 170 pounds, he’s severely undersized — or at least, so we thought.

    As it turns out, the modern NFL receiver may just look more like Smith. We just didn’t know that when he was drafted. After what he did last season, there’s little doubt as to whether Smith is legit. He commanded a strong 27% target share, which is downright elite for a team’s WR2.

    Smith totaled 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns. His 15.0 PPR fantasy points per game were good enough for an overall WR14 finish.

    When spending early-round picks on wide receivers, we ideally want to target the best players who are also WR1s in their offenses. Year after year, the data shows that the overwhelming majority of fantasy WR1s are NFL WR1s. Of course, there are always a couple of WR2s who sneak into the top 12, and Smith has as good of a chance as anyone of being that guy this season.

    Despite being Philadelphia’s clear WR2 behind A.J. Brown, Smith’s usage and metrics are typically found in WR1s. His 26.2% targets per route run rate was inside the top 20, and he ran a route on 97% of his team’s pass plays. Smith averaged 2.3 yards per route run, 14th in the league, and was elite after the catch with an eighth-ranked 15.8% evaded tackles per touch rate.

    Smith’s 2022 season was actually even better than his final numbers may suggest. He averaged 15 points per game, but he actually posted a goose egg in Week 1. So, from Weeks 2-18, he actually averaged 15.9 ppg. With 16-point averages roughly being the threshold for WR1 production, Smith was right there.

    Should You Draft DeVonta Smith This Year?

    One of the main concerns fantasy managers may have regarding Smith is the abundance of options in the Eagles’ elite offense. Beyond Brown and Smith at WR, they have a top-five tight end in Dallas Goedert and a proven fantastic pass-catching running back in D’Andre Swift — something they did not have last year. We haven’t even mentioned the amount of volume Jalen Hurts takes up with his rushing.

    There are several players who need to get involved, which gives me a bit of pause when it comes to expecting Smith to really ascend beyond what he did last season. After all, his target share really doesn’t have any room to grow, absent a Brown injury or something like that.

    When it comes to first-round draft picks, it’s fine to draft players at their ceiling. After all, how much higher can they really get? But for someone like Smith with a WR14 ADP, No. 30 overall, you want him to have plausible upside. I’m just not sure I see it.

    Don’t get me wrong, I like Smith. He’s very much capable of having a 16-17 ppg season. But at WR13, he’s being drafted above where he finished last season despite elite volume and efficiency numbers, plus his team adding a pass-catching RB they didn’t have last season.

    In consensus with ADP, Smith is currently my WR13. I will gladly take him if he’s the top player on my board. But I probably have more running backs and quarterbacks I’m willing to take over Smith than his ADP suggests.

    Smith is definitely a high WR2 and worthy of being drafted as such. Do not actively avoid him. Just understand that you’re likely drafting him at or very close to his ceiling.

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