DeVonta Smith’s 2023 season didn’t quite go as fantasy football managers expected. Between reduced volume and the Philadelphia Eagles‘ offensive collapse, Smith took a marginal step back last year. Is he poised for a rebound in 2024? Should fantasy managers take advantage of his reduced price in drafts?
Should You Select DeVonta Smith at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 46th Overall (WR23)
- 2023 Recap: Smith’s 2023 season didn’t meet the high expectations set by fantasy football managers. His target share dropped from 27% in 2022 to 22.8%, resulting in a slight dip in fantasy points per game from 15 to 14.2. Despite the reduced volume, Smith remained a reliable performer.
- Performance Consistency: Smith’s key metrics, such as yards per game (66) and touchdowns (7), remained consistent with his previous year’s performance. His catch rate even improved from 69.9% to 72.3%, showcasing his efficiency.
- Offensive Struggles: The Eagles’ offensive struggles, including Jalen Hurts’ regression as a passer and coaching adjustments, contributed to the team’s overall decline in scoring. The Eagles addressed these issues by bringing in Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and signing Saquon Barkley to bolster the backfield.
- 2024 Outlook: Smith’s role in the Eagles’ offense remains secure, with the team’s passing game still centered around A.J. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert. With a more stable offensive environment, Smith should at least replicate last season’s numbers.
- ADP Value: Smith is currently being drafted as the WR23, 46th overall. This presents a strong value, as Smith has shown a top-15 upside in the past. Drafting him at his current ADP offers a solid floor with the potential for significant upside.
- Final Verdict: While Smith is unlikely to overtake A.J. Brown as the Eagles’ WR1, his proven talent and favorable ADP make him a compelling option in 2024 drafts. He’s a safe pick with a good chance to outperform his draft position, especially if the Eagles’ offense rebounds.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for DeVonta Smith
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
39) Mark Andrews, TE | Baltimore Ravens
40) Kenneth Walker III, RB | Seattle Seahawks
41) Amari Cooper, WR | Cleveland Browns
42) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | San Francisco 49ers
43) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
44) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
Smith’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Before doing my initial run of rankings for the 2023 season, I was extremely bullish on Smith, ranking him firmly inside the top 15 WRs. Then, when I did my projections, he projected just outside the top 24. It was a fascinating discrepancy that I had to work through.
Ultimately, I leaned more on the side of my initial feeling. As it turned out, my projections were trying to tell me something.
Smith’s 27% target share from 2022 proved unsustainable. With that number falling to 22.8% last year, Smith’s fantasy points per game dropped from 15 to 14.2. Other than the volume reduction, Smith was mostly the same player, though.
More big plays from @DevontaSmith_6 on the Eagles for years to come 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZhBWHnMQ5O
— NFL (@NFL) April 15, 2024
His yards per game were similar (70.4 in 2022, 66 in 2023), and his catch rate increased from 69.9% to 72.3%. Smith also scored seven touchdowns for the second consecutive year.
Targets are earned. From that perspective, we can blame Smith for his own shortcomings, but it would be unfair to paint him as the sole culprit. There are two other entities to blame.
First, Jalen Hurts regressed as a passer. Second, the coaching staff struggled to properly adjust to what defenses were doing, resulting in the Eagles scoring 11 fewer offensive touchdowns last year.
After sputtering to an unceremonious finish, the Eagles engaged in some serious introspection. They brought Kellen Moore in as offensive coordinator and committed to righting the ship.
The only other meaningful change the Eagles made on the offensive side of the ball was signing Saquon Barkley. While Barkley provides a significant upgrade on D’Andre Swift, he doesn’t provide added target competition. This offense will once again run through A.J. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
Is Smith a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
At worst, Smith should be able to replicate last season’s numbers. He disappointed fantasy managers relative to his 2023 ADP, but he was far from a disaster.
Smith’s ADP this season is WR23, No.47 overall. It’s hard not to get excited about drafting Smith at that price.
One of my favorite things to do is draft players at their floor. With wide receivers being so heavily propped up this season, they are all more expensive than normal. Smith sure looks like a pretty good value relative to other wide receivers.
Fantasy managers can and should prefer NFL WR1s over NFL WR2s, and there is exactly a 0% chance Smith can become his team’s WR1 (absent an AJB injury). Nevertheless, Smith has a proven top-15 upside. Unlike last season, Smith no longer comes with anything close to a top-15 price.
Where Smith goes, there are typically running backs I prefer. But if you are selecting a wide receiver, Smith is very much in play. He is currently my WR20.