Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith is coming off a strong rookie season that is very indicative of long-term success. Now with more target competition in Philly, what is Smith’s fantasy football outlook and ADP in fantasy football drafts?
DeVonta Smith’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Smith’s ability to command a 22% target share as a rookie and post 64 receptions for 916 yards and five touchdowns is definitely impressive. He proved that his size is not going to prohibit him from becoming a consistently productive NFL player.
Smith stepped into a barren WR room where the best receiver on the team before he got there was Quez Watkins. It would have been a massive disappointment if he didn’t lead the team in target share.
While target share is important in evaluating a wide receiver’s role, equally important in fantasy football is the total pie that target share is coming from. In Philadelphia, it was the smallest one in the NFL last season.
The Eagles attempted just 494 passes on the season, the fewest in the league. They were one of just three teams to run more than they threw, leading the NFL in run percentage at 52.7%. If Smith is going to be anything more than the WR3 who averaged 10.9 PPR fantasy points per game last season, he will need more volume.
How the Eagles’ depth chart impacts DeVonta Smith’s fantasy projection for the season
Smith is not going to be a WR1 in the NFL. He profiles much better as “the other guy.” The Eagles, being well aware of this, jumped on the opportunity to make him “the other guy.”
During the 2022 NFL Draft, the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown, who they will immediately install as their alpha WR1. This is a fantastic move for the Eagles and for Jalen Hurts. However, it’s awful for Smith’s fantasy value.
If you want a bit of a cheat code for unsound fantasy analysis, just look for anyone who tells you that a team adding target competition for a receiver is a big advantage for that receiver. It’s not. It never is. We want our fantasy players on offenses with consolidated touch shares — offenses where the ball is consistently going to only a couple of players.
The thing is, in the traditional sense of a consolidated offense, the Eagles qualify. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert are going to command the lion’s share of the targets. The problem is Hurts can’t really support three fantasy-relevant pass catchers. At least not if he’s only throwing the ball 28.8 times per game.
Can Smith produce as Jalen Hurts’ third option?
Last season, Goedert and Zach Ertz (during his time on the Eagles) combined for a 21.6% target share. I’m expecting Goedert to be around 20% this season. Brown certainly warrants at least a 25% target share. So, where does that leave Smith?
I like Smith as a player and do think he has the talent to be a WR2 in fantasy in the right situation. Unfortunately, the Eagles are not that situation. Not only do I project Smith to be unable to progress from a fantasy perspective with Brown in town, but he’s also more likely than not to have a slightly worse season than last year.
I can’t see a scenario — outside of an injury to Brown — where Smith’s target share increases. For Smith to see more targets, Hurts would have to throw more. And this Eagles team is better than it was last season, where Hurts led all quarterbacks in rush attempts. They could run even more this season.
Hurts has room to grow as a passer
There is room for Hurts to improve as a passer, though. He completed just 61.3% of his passes last season. Smith’s catch rate was 61.5%, basically in line with Hurts’ completion percentage. If Hurts can get that number up a few ticks, it could offset the potential volume loss for Smith. However, it appears as though Smith is likely to remain the same type of fantasy player who is once again on the WR3/4 border.
Smith’s ADP for 2022
Smith’s ADP is around 88th overall, where he is being drafted as a low WR3. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, we have him as the WR43 and outside the top 100 overall.
I’m not super bullish on Smith taking a huge step forward this season, but he should improve as a player in his second year. Even with Smith’s ADP being relatively low, I find myself gravitating toward other players at that spot.
There’s certainly upside with Smith (and just about every second-year player). Even with the increase in target competition, Smith should at least be able to reproduce what he did as a rookie. And what if Hurts does become more accurate? What if the Eagles throw a little bit more than expected? I completely understand drafting Smith at his ADP with the hope for a bit of a higher ceiling.
While I think Smith finishes above his current ADP, I don’t think the likelihood he finishes significantly higher is enough to take him over other players with more upside. As a result, I don’t find myself drafting him much. But if he falls, he’s not going to be a bad pick at cost.