DeVonta Smith’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith may be small, but he’s proven capable of being a top receiver in the league. At the same time, his fantasy football value is currently capped by playing alongside A.J. Brown. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?

DeVonta Smith’s Dynasty Outlook

DeVonta Smith provided fantasy managers with a white-hot finish to the 2022 season. That made him a pretty hot commodity heading into the 2023 season, with the arrow firmly pointed upwards. A further ascent, possibly into the ranks of the WR1s, felt imminent.

Smith was a very popular trade target ahead of the 2023 season. Unfortunately, things didn’t exactly go as planned.

We’ve seen plenty of wide receivers not take the leap forward we hoped for. Relatively speaking, Smith’s was one of the least damaging, as his production only took a small hit. Perhaps most importantly for dynasty purposes, the fault largely lies with people other than Smith.

QB Jalen Hurts regressed considerably as a passer. The coaching staff also struggled to properly adjust to what defenses were doing, resulting in the Eagles scoring 11 fewer offensive touchdowns last year.

Smith’s target share dropped from 27% to 22.8%. His yards per game were similar (70.4 in 2022, 66. in 2023), and his catch rate increased from 69.9% to 72.3%. He scored seven touchdowns for the second consecutive year.

It wasn’t so much that Smith’s 2023 was disappointing. Rather, it was that in his third year, his age-24 season, a continued upward trajectory was expected. Instead, he stagnated a bit.

The good news is Smith is only 25 years old. Not every young, talented wide receiver is going to see his production increase each season. Hiccups happen, and Smith’s has far less to do with that than his offense does. Plus, it wasn’t as if Smith went from a high WR2 to a random WR3. He still finished as the overall WR20. A 0.8 points per game drop is not exactly a disaster.

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I’m not sure we will ever see Hurts Hurts play as effectively and efficiently as he did two years ago. However, he should be better in the future than he was this past season. Of course, that only benefits Smith if Smith is still in Philadelphia.

Going into 2024, Smith is entering the final year of his rookie deal. While the Eagles are certainly going to exercise his fifth-year option, the diminutive receiver is still looking for an extension. I think he’ll get it, but stranger things have happened. After all, who saw the Kansas City Chiefs trading away Tyreek Hill due to financial discrepancies?

Smith remaining with the Eagles does seem like the most plausible outcome. In fact, if one of their top two receivers is going to leave, it’s far more likely to be Brown. But do fantasy managers want Smith to stay in Philly? I’m not sure it’s great for his dynasty prospects.

Smith is far from a bad fantasy receiver to roster. You can see where I have him ranked (WR14). He has 16-18 points per game in him. But can he do that while playing alongside Brown? I’m not so sure.

If you look at the list of WR1s in fantasy throughout the history of the game, they are overwhelmingly WR1s in the NFL. Every year there are a couple of teams that can produce two fantasy WR1s, but it’s usually not sustainable.

There is no waiting out Brown here. He’s a mere 1.5 years older than Smith. Unless you think Smith can overtake Brown as Hurts’ top target, there’s a capped ceiling for Smith in this offense.

Smith’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Smith land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Smith lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF

Should You Trade Smith in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Smith? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!

It’s very difficult to advise trading away young, talented receivers. Smith’s fantasy upside may be in question, but his talent is not. The dude is simply good football. He’s one of the best route runners in the game and far better on downfield targets than anyone his size has any right to be.

The only way I’m trading Smith is if I find a trade partner willing to value him as a top 8-10 fantasy WR. Even in an ideal situation, it’s hard to see him ever finishing higher than WR8-10 in a given year. More likely, he will hover around the WR15-20 range for the rest of his career. That’s not bad at all! Not every player is going to have elite-WR1 upside.

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Smith is a fantastic WR2 to have long-term. If he’s your WR1, though, then you may be disappointed.

Any player is worth trading if you can get more in return than the player is worth. Sometimes, our personal valuations of players make it easier to do this. With Smith, it’s unlikely you’re getting back more than he’s worth. Unless you can trade him as a WR1 or for younger players with that elite upside, Smith is a hold in dynasty leagues.