As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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De’Von Achane’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Some rookie running backs hit their fantasy peak in Year 1 or Year 2. Others bide their time as a backup, or perhaps as a 1B option behind a veteran RB, until they’re given the opportunity to break through.
As the sixth running back taken in this year’s draft, Achane doesn’t scream “fantasy superstar,” at least not this year. The third-rounder is both fast and undersized, with Combine measurements showing he’s 5’9″ and 185 pounds.
He’s a quicker Dexter McCluster. And although that might seem damning with faint praise, McCluster was a highly touted prospect when the Chiefs drafted him in the second round in 2009.
But this is the challenge facing Achane, who’s not built like a traditional NFL bell cow or even a two-down back. He might be better suited as a high-volume RB receiver, giving way to Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. between the tackles.
Mostert and Wilson each hit 4.7+ yards per carry last year on this squad. In fact, even at 31 years old, Mostert is one of the game’s most underrated running backs when healthy.
Last year’s 4.9 ypc was the worst of his career. Yes, worst. Had he not struggled with injuries for years, he might be known today as one of the best RBs of the past five or six seasons.
And yet, Miami plans to run the ball more in 2023. Prior to last year, Mostert had never earned more than 151 touches in a season. But this past season, he netted 212.
For a typical 1A back, that’s not huge volume. But for a guy with Mostert’s injury history, it could spell trouble.
This might elevate the 27-year-old Wilson to the lead-back role as the team paces Mostert to help keep him on track for a playoff push. As a result, Wilson might become the 200+ touch RB, with Mostert operating in a 1B role.
Or a minor early-season injury to Mostert could serve as a wake-up call to head coach Mike McDaniel, compelling him to feature Wilson more prominently on early downs and conserve Mostert for higher-leverage situations.
Or — and this is the key for Achane — the Dolphins might eventually view this as a three-headed backfield, with the rookie picking up 6-8 touches. If most of those are through the air, then he could be an immediate fringe fantasy streamer.
We should also consider how brutally tough Miami’s first nine opponents are: the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Patriots, and Chargers on the road, as well as home games vs. the Giants, Patriots, and Broncos. Their one highly favorable matchup will be against the Panthers, although anything is possible against that ascending Carolina franchise.
If the Fins limp through these first two months, then they could find themselves in must-win mode much earlier than expected. A lost season could compel them to expand Achane’s role. Additionally, any struggles by Mostert and/or Wilson could elevate Achane to greater prominence — if he can handle it.
No doubt, Achane thrived as Texas A&M’s bell cow while frequently running over the defenses of top-20 programs. And … for every Darren Sproles, there are dozens of McClusters. Achane’s range of outcomes this season is all over the map. He’s a unicorn RB of sorts in a crowded backfield. It could be November before we can fully understand how McDaniel and his staff plan to employ him.
Should You Draft De’Von Achane This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Achane with an ADP of RB38. It’s a relatively bullish projection, given the headwinds facing him. Yet, clearly, the fantasy market likes his potential as a constant contributor in this above-average offense and/or as a late-season bell cow if/when he’s earned an outsized role.
If you draft him, he might be more of a stash-and-cash play. In other words, if you have the bench space to put him aside, then he could be a top-30 RB at some point this year.
Yet, his ADP suggests assured value. And there’s nothing assured for a small-framed rookie RB competing for touches with two efficient veterans. In fact, with a ceiling that probably won’t reach the top 25, Achane doesn’t have the pop of some other first-year RBs, even those who are beginning the season as pure handcuffs.
Achane’s value is tied to his hype more than his assured usage. That makes him a fade at his current price.