Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane joins a backfield with two reliable yet oft-injured veterans. Lacking feature-back size, can Achane carve out a fantasy-relevant role as a rookie? Should fantasy football managers draft Achane at his ADP this season?
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Devon Achane’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
It had been seven long years since the Dolphins last used a Day 2 pick on a running back. That was Kenyan Drake back in 2016. This year, the Dolphins used a third-round selection on Achane.
The rookie out of Texas A&M steps into the perfect offense suited for a player of his ability. Of course, the concern with Achane is whether he will see the volume necessary to be a fantasy factor.
Achane stands at 5’9″ and weighs just 188 pounds. He’s not going to be a three-down back. That’s OK, though. Very few of them exist. It doesn’t preclude Achane from having RB2 upside.
Achane has other things going for him. He has blazing 4.32 speed and won’t turn 22 years old until midway through the season. In his final year at Texas A&M, he ran for over 1,100 yards and commanded a 12.3% target share. The latter bit of information there is the most intriguing.
Last season, the Dolphins targeted the running back position a healthy 20.1% of the time. They did so despite not really having a true pass-catching running back.
Chase Edmonds, their presumptive receiving back, turned out to be a sub-replacement-level player. The Dolphins wound up using Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson largely interchangeably, but neither has a history of pass-catching production. That’s where Achane comes in.
Achane injects youth and explosiveness into this backfield. He profiles as a plus satellite back. That is, he should primarily be used in clear passing situations but is also capable of handling 8-10 carries a game — if he can earn them.
Given his rookie status, the difficulty for Achane will be earning a meaningful role. This backfield will almost certainly open with Mostert and Wilson handling the majority of the work. If it stays a three-man committee, all three backs will have productive weeks, but predicting them will be just about impossible.
Is Achane a Good Fantasy Pick?
Achane currently has an ADP of RB43, No. 138 overall. If you’re drafting him, you’re not expecting to be able to start him early on. That’s OK.
I am right in line with the consensus, ranking Achane as my RB44. He also sits at RB42 in our PFN consensus rankings.
By the time Achane becomes one of the top running backs available, ideally, you should already have three on your roster. That makes Achane hitting less important, which is exactly what you want later in drafts.
Achane is the type of player to take a shot at because his upside in the Dolphins’ high-powered offense far exceeds his cost.
In a best-case scenario, Achane renders one of Wilson or Mostert irrelevant (or just forces the Dolphins to consolidate them into one role) and returns low-RB2 value. That’s a tremendous return on investment for a guy you’re drafting as your RB4.
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With that said, Achane is opening the season well behind Mostert and Wilson. He was clearly fourth on the depth chart in the preseason, and this shoulder injury that’s keeping him out of practice is not helping him close the gap.
As a result, fantasy managers taking the chance on him may have to wait longer than originally planned to see him make a move.
In a worst-case scenario, Mostert and Wilson remain healthy throughout the entire season, and this remains a three-man committee, rendering Achane unstartable. Most of the players selected where Achane goes will be dropped anyway. He’s a low-risk selection with a pretty high ceiling for a guy picked that late.