With more managers taking part in playoff fantasy football leagues now that the regular season has concluded, Buffalo Bills running backs Devin Singletary and James Cook will be hot names in drafts, as both enter the playoffs with a ton of momentum.
What are the fantasy values of both Singletary and Cook, and how should we view them for Wild Card Weekend?
Devin Singletary and James Cook’s Fantasy Value
Are the Bills a team of destiny for the 2023 NFL playoffs? After what we saw in Week 18, I will not bet against it.
When factoring in the value of a play for fantasy football, you need to consider how long the team will be playing. Someone on a one-and-done offense won’t be as valuable as someone on a team with championship aspirations.
It’s no secret the Bills are one of the favorites. Part of why they are here is the balance they’ve had on offense in thanks to Singletary and Cook. However, running backs will never be the primary focus when you have Josh Allen, which was the case this season.
The Bills are far removed from their rushing-centric approach and were 18th in rushing percentage at 41.8%. Singletary saw a majority of the carries in 2022, recording a 61% rushing share with a 9.4% target share (47% of RB targets), whereas Cook saw 31% of the attempts and 29% of the targets in his rookie season.
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The RB23 on the season and 28th in points per game (11.1 PPR), Singletary averaged an efficient 4.6 yards per carry on his 177 carries, but the lack of volume didn’t mean a ton of fantasy success, as he finished as an RB2 or better in just six games over the season.
Over the back half of the season, Singletary has been losing opportunities to Cook, with the team gaining more confidence in the rookie out of Georgia. Since Week 11, Cook has averaged 11 opportunities and 60.3 yards, while Singletary has averaged 14.2 opportunities and 71.1 yards.
Fantasy managers in playoff leagues should view the Bills’ running backs the same way they have throughout the regular season. Both Singletary and Cook are Flex-level RBs that bring touchdown upside because of the offense they are on and not because they are the focal point of it.
Both will be ranked slightly higher in the overall playoff rankings, rather than just the Wild Card round, due to the expected number of games. But if you’re looking for a relatively safe option at RB2 or Flex, depending on how many members are in your league, Singletary and Cook make sense when drafting your teams, as you should get at minimum three games from them.
Fantasy Outlook for Singletary and Cook in Wild Card Weekend
Buffalo starts their hopeful road to the Super Bowl this weekend, taking on a divisional foe. In fact, the theme of the weekend is revenge as, for only the fifth time since the 1970 merger, all six of the opening games feature rematches from the regular season.
Singletary’s best finish of the year came against the Dolphins in Week 3 (RB4). In a 21-19 loss, the Bills ran a shocking 91 snaps, of which Singletary rushed nine times for just 13 yards. But he caught nine of his 11 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. It’s one of the biggest outlier games you’ll find, as Singletary only recorded two more games of more than four targets.
In Week 15, Singletary was the RB35 with 70 yards on 16 touches, while Cook finished as the RB27, rushing five times for 34 yards and catching two of three targets for five yards and a touchdown.
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Given the firepower of the Miami Dolphins, it should be no surprise that the rushing attack is more of a secondary thought. I expect that to remain the case here in the Wild Card round, even if Tua Tagovailoa is unable to play.
The Dolphins have been solid against the run. Since Week 12, they sit No. 7 in rush DVOA, No. 9 in EPA, and fourth in success rate. Breece Hall is the only running back who rushed for more than 70 yards against them this year (97 in Week 5), and you have to go back to Week 13 with Christian McCaffrey (66) for the last player to record over 50 rushing yards.
Even if Tua can’t go and we don’t get a shootout, I’m still not overly enthusiastic about Singletary or Cook this Wild Card Weekend. I think they’ll be fine in fantasy, but likely not much more than that unless we see an outlier game. Singletary comes in as a high-end RB2, with Cook a mid-RB2 for fantasy and probably better for DFS.