Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary was left out in the cold by fantasy football managers prior to last season. However, Singletary bounced back big-time from a lackluster 2020 campaign and established himself as the Bills’ RB1. For the 2022 season, what is Singletary’s outlook, and should fantasy managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Devin Singletary’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Heading into the 2021 season, the general consensus on Bills running backs was just to avoid them. After a decently productive rookie season where Singletary averaged 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game, the Bills drafted Zack Moss. As a result, Singletary’s usage was reduced, and he averaged just nine ppg as a sophomore.
Entering his third NFL season, there was a very real possibility Singletary was going to continue to fade away. The final numbers don’t tell the true story of Singletary’s 2021 season. He averaged a respectable 11.6 ppg, but at no point was he merely a low RB2.
From Weeks 1-13, Singletary averaged 8.3 ppg. During that span, Singletary hit double-digit fantasy points just four times — the same number of times he ended up being unstartable due to scoring under six fantasy points.
Then, in Week 14, seemingly without notice, something shifted. The Bills committed to Singletary as their feature back. From Weeks 14-18, Singletary did a lot of things. He never scored lower than 14.9 fantasy points (which was higher than his best week over the first 13 weeks). He averaged around an 80% snap share, and most important for fantasy managers, Singletary averaged 19.7 ppg. He was an elite RB1 down the stretch.
How the Bills’ depth chart impacts Devin Singletary’s fantasy projection for the season
The good news for Singletary’s outlook in 2022 is it appears the Bills have acknowledged that Moss is just not an NFL-caliber player. He also does not contribute to special teams. Therefore, I fully expect him to be a healthy inactive more often than a fantasy-relevant risk to Singletary.
Additionally, the Bills made two additions at running back that very well may impact Singletary’s fantasy outlook. First, they signed Duke Johnson. Then, they drafted James Cook at the end of Round 2 in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Most of Singletary’s production last season came via rushing and touchdowns. However, he did have five games with 5+ targets. With these two moves, it’s pretty clear the Bills see receiving back as a need. Johnson averaged 4.5 targets per game during his five seasons in Cleveland.
James Cook is not a significant threat to Singletary’s rushing work
Cook had double-digit rushing attempts just five times in his four years at Georgia. His career-high in carries in a single game is 12. Simply put, he was likely not drafted to run the ball. He will most likely play ahead of Johnson and be the team’s primary pass-catching back. And this is already an offense that doesn’t utilize the RB as a receiver very often. The Bills targeted running backs just 14.6% of the time last season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Singletary can still be productive this season and should still be the best fantasy RB on the Bills. He just lacks the ceiling of the guy we saw down the stretch in 2021. Consider Singletary more of a low RB2 entering 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Singletary’s ADP for 2022
Here’s the thing about my valuation of Singletary as a low RB2 — that’s pretty far above his ADP. Singletary is going around 80th overall. He’s in the region of the 30th running back off the board. This certainly appears to be a good value. PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings have Singletary as the RB29 but 60th overall, nearly two full rounds higher than his ADP.
Although Singletary’s ceiling is not the guy we saw over the final few weeks of the 2021 season, it’s still way higher than where he’s being drafted. The natural hype that comes with rookies should prop Cook up and keep your league-mates from overdrafting Singletary. That allows you to scoop him up later.
I would be very surprised if Singletary wasn’t at least a mid RB3. The best type of player to draft is one going at his floor. That sure looks like Singletary this season.