After his breakout 2019 season (finally), DeVante Parker came back down to Earth in 2020, much to the dismay of fantasy football managers believing he had turned a corner. So, as he heads into the 2021 NFL season surrounded by competition at his position, what is Parker’s fantasy outlook in 2021, and should he be considered in drafts at his current ADP?
DeVante Parker’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The hype surrounding Parker heading into 2020, whether as a fantasy player or a Dolphins fan, was palpable. Coming off his “fifth-year breakout” where he recorded 1,202 yards and 9 TDs, Parker was going to show the world it was not a fluke. Well, about that.
Playing in 14 games, Parker hauled in 63 receptions on 103 targets (21.1% target share) for 793 yards and 4 touchdowns. In fantasy, he was the WR40 on the season and WR39 in points per game (11.9). While he was one of just 35 receivers to record over 100 targets, Parker’s 1.61 points/target was 88th (minimum 30 targets).
Parker struggled even as the clear WR1
Even after Preston Williams went down in Week 8 for the second season in a row, Parker saw a minimum boost in performance, going from 6.1 targets, 4.5 receptions, 53.8 yards, and 0.38 TDs per game (eight games) to 9 targets, 4.5 receptions, 60.3 yards, and 0.17 TDs in the six games without him.
A significant component of this was his lack of success with Tua Tagovailoa. With Tua under center, he averaged 7.1 targets, 3.6 receptions, 43.1 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns. Meanwhile, in eight games with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he averaged 7.6 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 74.6 yards per game. That’s a difference of 34 receptions and 535.5 yards over a 17-game pace.
His continued inability to score did not change, which has plagued him, scoring over 4 touchdowns just once. It was not for lack of trying. Parker’s 35.1% end-zone target share not only led the team but was fourth-highest amongst all NFL players in 2020.
Can he bounce back in 2021 in an even more crowded offense?
If the only variable were Tua being the starter, I’d have no issue with Parker in 2021, conceivably taking a sizable step forward. But it is not the only change. Not only did the Dolphins sign Will Fuller in the offseason, but they drafted Tua’s former teammate Jaylen Waddle.
Parker is the big body on the outside in the Dolphins offense. Waddle will operate over the middle, with Fuller the deeper threat most of the time. While these roles are fairly defined, this also means the target share will likely be evenly split. For Parker, this could be an issue. Waddle will be a YAC monster, and Fuller led all receivers with 2.52 fantasy points per target (minimum 50 targets). You feel confident in them for fantasy.
As for Parker, the same can not be said. What is his upside? It’s likely he just saw his ceiling in end-zone targets and did little with them. To make matters worse, I have gone this whole time without mentioning Mike Gesicki, who led the team in red-zone targets (14).
For as talented as Parker might be, I don’t see the upside in his fantasy outlook for 2021.
Fantasy projection
So long as Fuller can stay on the field, Parker is likely no longer the WR1 on the Dolphins. Given their approach in the offseason, it would anticipate a slight uptick in volume as well. In 2020, Miami’s offense operated with a 58% pass rate (19th in the NFL) and 37.1 dropbacks per game. While I am sure that Brian Flores will run a somewhat balanced offense, you have to do it off your QB’s arm if you are going to win games.
I expect to see Tua spread the ball around in 2021, given the amount of talent surrounding him at receiver and tight end. Parker, Fuller, Waddle, and Gesicki could combine for approximately 63% to 65% of the targets.
The issue for Parker is the competition for those targets. I would not be surprised if less than 10 targets separate all three receivers when the dust settles on the 2021 season.
The best games for Parker will come when Fuller inevitably misses time (5.5 games missed per year). This is when we could see Parker take over games for fantasy. But whether or not this makes a sizable impact on his season-long standing will depend on the length of contests missed for Fuller. It’s not like Parker is the picture of health either.
Early projections have Parker seeing around 95-100 targets, 60-65 receptions for about 775-850 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns.
DeVante Parker’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Parker is currently being selected with an ADP of 137.3 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls to 149.3. However, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Parker has an ADP of 130.12. His ADP on Fleaflicker is by far the lowest at 150.5
Should you draft Parker in 2021?
In fantasy, it is rarely a wrong choice to chase volume. Targets lead to yards which results in fantasy points. But there is more to it than just that. When you draft a player, you are selecting them because you believe they will outperform their ADP and be a value during the season. I struggle to see that with Parker.
The deck seems stacked against him in 2021. He is with a QB that he struggled to be on the same page with, and by season’s end, he might be the third-best receiver on his team.
I lean more towards his ADP being higher than what you will likely get out of him this season. Will there be games where Parker is a WR3 bordering on WR2 territory? Sure, especially if he finds the end zone. But if I were to rank Dolphins pass catchers for fantasy in 2021, Parker would be fourth on my list, even behind Gesicki.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.