DeVante Parker has had what some would refer to as a tumultuous career with the Miami Dolphins. However, in 2019, he finished the season with his most impressive performance of the year against the New England Patriots. Parker totaled 137 yards in that game and was crucial in upsetting New England and denying them a first-round bye in the playoffs. More impressively, Parker accomplished this feat against Stephon Gilmore, the best cornerback in the NFL and one of the league’s best players period (he ranked fourth on PFN’s Top 100 list).
Parker’s Offensive Share Metric grade in Week 17 was far better than his 2019 average
In this case, Parker’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM) grade backs up what your eyes saw on the field. His OSM grade from that game was 33.65, well above his season average of 28.03, and his third-highest grade of 2019.
While that grade was still only ranked 25th among qualifying wide receivers during Week 17, Parker was Miami’s highest-graded player that week. As such, we can reasonably say that Parker provided more value to the team than any of his teammates against the Patriots. His conventional statistics were superb, and the way he accrued them was very efficient, especially by his standards.
Explaining Parker’s improvement in the final game of the season
So, what changed for Parker in Week 17? Let’s start by getting the negatives out of the way. His yards after catch (YAC) average in that game of 5.2, while a full yard higher than his season average, was 3.6 yards less than it should have been according to the NFL’s advanced metrics.
In this sense, Parker’s performance against the Patriots was actually worse than usual. Throughout the regular season, his YAC average was 0.1 yards higher than expected. That isn’t particularly impressive, but it does show that, during the regular season, he took what was given to him after the catch, although rarely much more than that. He failed to meet that standard in Week 17.
In most other areas, though, Parker outperformed his season-long metrics in Week 17. He averaged 2.6 yards of separation, a small, but not insignificant, increase over his season average of 2.1.
However, the most obvious change, and the one that had the most impact, was the increase in Parker’s catch percentage. Against New England, he caught an impressive 72.73% of his passes. When you compare that to his season average of 56.25%, his success rate against the Patriots was far, far higher. And naturally, when a player catches more of their passes, they will provide more value to their offense and, on average, see an increase in their statistical production as well.
While impressive, Parker’s Week 17 grade only further highlights his inconsistencies in 2019
When looking at his statistics, it is easy to be impressed by Parker’s performance. However, let’s not forget that there was a good reason the OSM ranked him poorly overall. For every good performance, like the one in Week 17, there was another game in which he dramatically underperformed.
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Notably, his worst grade of the season came against those same Patriots in Week 2, when Parker was targeted seven times for zero catches in what was a crushing 43-0 loss for Miami. And that is precisely the problem with Parker. Sometimes, he’s incredible, taking over games and imposing his will on opposing defenders. But other times, throwing him the ball has the same effect as simply flinging it into the stands.
The issue with Parker’s play is not and has never been that he isn’t capable of producing at a high level. It’s that if your offense is relying on him to come up with big catches in your most desperate moments, there will inevitably be games in which he lets you down. Which is obviously a serious problem. You can’t be considered one of the NFL’s best wide receivers if you aren’t reliable. In a 16 game regular season, even a few off games could seriously damage your team’s chances of making the playoffs.
As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, if he can become more reliable, Parker could be a truly exceptional player. The potential is clearly there, but last season, he wasn’t at that level. Hopefully, that changes in the future.
The Dolphins are looking to turn their franchise around in the next few seasons. A player of Parker’s talents would be invaluable in reaching that goal. But if he can’t utilize those talents on a more routine basis, then he might find himself left behind.
Lucas Ellinas is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @Lucas_Ellinas.