Fantasy football managers have been benefiting from pass catches in both of these offenses all season long, and that should continue in this matchup. The Detroit Lions‘ fantasy outlook dives into the value of their quarterback, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ fantasy preview takes a look at their receivers.
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Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Lions -3
- Total: 43.5
- Lions implied points: 23.3
- Buccaneers implied points: 20.3
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: After yet another profitable home game for fantasy managers, Goff takes his impressive Lions on the road to face a Buccaneers defense that had an extra week to prepare.
Normally, I’m out on Goff when he plays outdoors, but the Bucs allow over 70% of opponent yardage to come through the air – a defensive style that Goff should be able to take advantage of, assuming WR Amon-Ra St. Brown returns to action.
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Goff is on a career pace in completion percentage and, per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet, has seen his touchdown rate increase by 16.3% from last season. I’m always shocked at how many leagues have Goff on waivers, and he’s my clear favorite of that tier this week.
Don’t forget that we are playing the long game. Goff’s indoor excellence is a note that you should keep handy. The Lions finish the season with four straight weatherproof games.
Baker Mayfield: The former Browns QB turned journeyman has the Bucs believing in themselves, and that’s great.
But it’s just not overly friendly at the QB position for our purposes.
Mayfield averages under 32 pass attempts per game, and without consistent ground production, that is going to land him outside of my top 15 most weeks. If you’re trying to fill the QB spot from the waiver wire this week, you can do better with the likes of Howell or Stafford.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: Another week, another elite workload with a touchdown for Montgomery. He scored from 42 yards out on the opening drive blowout win over the Panthers and cruised to 129 total yards on his 21 touches when all was said and done.
The rusher has at least 21 touches in all three games that he has finished healthy and has multiple catches in both of his games back in action. Do I think the six targets from last week are here to stay?
I don’t – St. Brown and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs both sitting out opened up routes and targets that wouldn’t normally be available. That’s OK. At this point, any production through the air is gravy.
Even in a tough matchup with 30 of 32 teams in action this week, Montgomery is an RB1. He carries an elite floor, given his rare role.
There goes David Montgomery 💨
pic.twitter.com/bfl65KRitY— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) October 8, 2023
Jahmyr Gibbs: The rookie back picked up a hamstring injury on Friday last week and sat out as a result. Nothing seems to suggest that he will sit out this week, and there’s a chance he could provide sneaky value in DFS, given how stout the Buccaneers are upfront.
Montgomery’s role in the passing game is limited, but you can’t justify going this direction in a season-long setting.
Gibbs doesn’t have a game with even 10 carries when Montgomery is active, which is a trend that seems stable at this point. Could they unleash the talented rookie at some point? I certainly hope so, but until we have evidence that they are interested in doing so, we can’t project it.
Rachaad White: We, as an industry, swing and miss plenty, but was there a single player more predictable this season after watching him last season?
“Inefficient runner who lacks vision but can be a fantasy asset by way of volume and involvement in the pass game.”
Was that not the book on White in August? What would you change from that after seeing four games this season?
He’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry with zero runs longer than 13 yards. He is touching the rock 19 times per game, and not one of his 13 targets has hit the ground. There might not be a player who is more who we thought he was than White, and that is unlikely to change at any point this season.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: The “Sun God” missed Week 5 with an abdomen injury, but he should be back this week. That means he is locked in as your WR1. St. Brown has a touchdown or 100 yards in all four of his games this season, and with a 20-plus yard catch in each of those contests, he is marrying volume with per-catch upside.
It’s not ideal that he missed a home game and is now going on the road to face a defense that was on a bye last week. Those are minor notes that can help you justify looking elsewhere in DFS, but there is no decision to be made in season-long leagues.
Jameson Williams: To call his 2023 debut an underwhelming one would be a gross underestimation. In a home game without their top receiver and top pass-catching back, Williams dropped his first target and turned his other two targets into two yards – six measly feet.
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He is 6’1”, so yes, if Williams caught a target at the line of scrimmage and simply face-planted with the ball held up high, he would have gained more yards than he did last weekend.
Better days, of course, are ahead, but that’s not saying much. Williams is the spottiest of spot starts. If you’re an underdog in a week where the Lions play at home against a favorable defense, and Williams has proven capable of staying on the field, you have the green light. Until all of those stars align, he’s depth, at best.
Josh Reynolds: Long-term, it’s Williams or nothing for me when it comes to investing in a Detroit receiver, not named St. Brown. But for right now, Reynolds has done enough to work his way into my top 50 at the position.
He had an impressive toe-drag touchdown last week in a game where he led the team in catches and receiving yards. He also has cleared 65 yards in all four of his games this season.
The upside is capped due to the balance of this offense and Goff’s willingness to spread the ball around. Five Lions saw 3-6 targets last week as they moved the ball down the field without their WR1.
He’s fine as depth on your season-long league or a punt play in DFS, but I do think he has overachieved a bit up to this point.
Mike Evans: After earning 28 targets and scoring in each game through three weeks, Evans left Week 4 early with a hamstring injury. All signs seem to be pointing toward him being fine following the Week 5 bye.
Given his connection down the field (13.6 aDOT) with Mayfield, he has earned our trust. I have Evans ranked as a low-end WR1 in the same tier as Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel – WR1s who carry a risk profile alongside their slate-breaking potential.
Chris Godwin: The veteran had easily his best game of the season in the Week 4 win in New Orleans (eight catches for 114 yards) before the Week 5 bye and should continue to be viewed as a high-floor option.
He has yet to score this season, and given the skill set of Evans, it’s hard to be optimistic about his ceiling. You’re flexing Godwin in PPR leagues with the expectation that he reaches double digits. That has value, even if it comes without the matchup-winning potential that his teammate possesses.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: In five short weeks, LaPorta has elevated himself from “nice flier option” to “bonafide starter/potential league winner.” He’s been a top-10 performer at the position in three of the past four games, and this offense is doing an amazing job at scheming him open.
The lone moving piece here is the target distribution when both St. Brown and Williams are active.
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That’s not to say I’m worried about it. It’s just worth noting that the duo hasn’t been on the field at the same time this season.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Joe Burrow?
I have these two ranked back-to-back, with the tie-breaker being comfort. The Buccaneers blitz far more often and get home far less often than the Seahawks, so assuming that St. Brown returns to action, Goff’s per-dropback floor grades a touch higher for me this week.
Should You Start Rachaad White or Zack Moss?
Moss could retain his workhorse role from his last game — White will. That may seem like a minor distinction, but we are in the business of evaluating realistic ranges of outcome, so a difference like that makes a difference.
If you told me they’d get the same number of opportunities, I’d prefer Moss. But with Jonathan Taylor back, Moss’ outlook inherits enough risk for me to side with White.