The Detroit Lions have been the top team in the NFC nearly wire-to-wire this season. However, Detroit still has work to do to win the NFC North and maintain the No. 1 seed thanks to an uber-competitive division.
What does Dan Campbell’s squad need to lock down the division and the top seed?
What Is the Detroit Lions’ Current Playoff Picture?
The Lions (14-2) basically control their own destiny. Since the Lions already defeated the Vikings (14-2) and have a better division and conference record, there is no sequence of events that can result in the Vikings winning a tiebreaker over the Lions.
The winner of the division and conference will come down to a Week 18 Sunday Night Football game between the two teams.
Could the Lions Have Clinched the NFC North in Week 17?
Yes, the Lions could have clinched both the division and No. 1 seed in the NFC via the following circumstances:
- DET win + MIN loss
However, the Vikings defeated the Green Bay Packers in Week 17, meaning the No. 1 seed and division will head into Week 18. The Lions visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
How Can the Lions Win the NFC North and No. 1 Seed?
Short of that clinching scenario, the Lions will still win both the division and No. 1 seed with a 2-0 finish.
Detroit simply needs to match Minnesota’s record over the final two weeks to win the division (so both 1-1 or both 1-0-1). The reasoning for that:
- If the Lions match or pass the Vikings by record with a Week 18 win, they’ll win the head-to-head tiebreaker (beat Minnesota in Week 7 as well).
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 14-3 with Minnesota winning the Week 18 rematch, the Lions would win on the division-record tiebreaker (5-1 vs. 4-2).
If the Lions win the NFC North, they’d win any tie with the Eagles because they are guaranteed to finish with a better conference record if the teams have the same final record.
VIKINGS VS. LIONS.
WEEK 18.
WINNER GETS THE #1 SEED AND NFC NORTH TITLE. pic.twitter.com/lVRDh40U4M
— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2024
The Lions are 9-1 in conference games, compared to 8-3 for the Eagles. Both teams play only conference opponents in their final three games, so the Eagles cannot match the Lions in conference record without passing Detroit in overall record (which would obviously render the tiebreaker moot).
What Are the Lions’ Possible Seeds?
Detroit can be the No. 1 or 5 seed. We’ve covered how they can earn the No. 1 seed above, but here are scenarios for the other two slots:
- No. 5 seed: Worse record than MIN over final two weeks
The Lions will almost certainly end up with the No. 1 seed (by winning the NFC North) or the No. 5 seed (by losing the NFC North to the Vikings).
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.