Nearly everything went right for the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Not only did the Lions dominate the Denver Broncos to move to 10-4 on the season, but the NFC North-rival Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers lost, giving Detroit even more of a buffer in the division.
Can the Lions clinch the NFC North this week? And do they still have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed?
Lions Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 7 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Lions have clinched the NFC North and are now the No. 3 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Lions entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
Lions’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances Entering Week 16
Almost all of the Lions’ competition for the NFC North title has faded away heading into Week 16. The Packers and Chicago Bears have already been eliminated from winning the division, leaving the Vikings as Detroit’s only remaining threat.
The Lions have a three-game lead over the 7-7 Vikings with three weeks left in the regular season. Detroit will face Minnesota twice over its next three games, allowing Kevin O’Connell’s club to make up some ground. However, the Lions are in an enviable position regarding the division title.
Detroit only needs to win one more game to clinch the NFC North. It doesn’t matter if the victory comes in Week 16 or 18 against the Vikings or in Week 17 against the Dallas Cowboys — one more win, and the Lions will clinch their first division title since 1993.
As such, it would take an epic collapse for Detroit not to walk away with the NFC North crown this season, and the numbers reflect that. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Lions a 95.3% chance of winning the division and a 99.8% chance to make the playoffs in some capacity.
Can the Lions Still Get the NFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Mathematically, the Lions are still in the race for the NFC’s top seed but will need some help. Detroit received some assistance in Week 15 when the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Seattle Seahawks, dropping them to 10-4.
Entering Week 16, four teams have at least some hope of garnering a first-round playoff bye in the NFC: the Lions, the Eagles, the Cowboys, and the conference-leading San Francisco 49ers, who remain the overwhelming favorite to secure home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The good news for the Lions is that if they win out, they’ll only have to worry about catching the 49ers. If Detroit finishes 13-4, neither Philadelphia nor Dallas would be able to catch Dan Campbell’s team, no matter what else occurs over the rest of the season.
San Francisco enters heading into this weekend’s action with an 11-3 record, one game ahead of the Lions. Detroit cannot win a playoff tiebreaker against the 49ers, who already have a 9-1 record inside the NFC compared to the Lions’ 6-3 mark.
Thus, Detroit needs San Fran to lose at least two of its final three games. It’s difficult to imagine the 49ers dropping its game to the Washington Commanders in Week 17, so the Lions are probably relying on them losing to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18.
Technically, Detroit could lose one of its last three games and hope San Francisco drops all three of its remaining contests, but that’s obviously a long shot. In that scenario, the Lions would also lose their grip on their common opponent tiebreaker against the Eagles.
All told, ESPN’s FPI gives Detroit just a 2% chance of earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed this season. The Lions’ most likely slot? The No. 3 seed, which Detroit has a 79% chance of grabbing, per FPI.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
