The alarm bells might be starting to ring for the Detroit Lions after two losses in three weeks have seen them slip to a 9-4 record and within reach of their NFC North foes. With their seemingly tight grasp on the division slightly loosening and any hopes of the No. 1 seed in the conference fading, the Lions need to put things right over the next four weeks.
Detroit Lions Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Saturday, Dec. 16 at 7:30 a.m. ET before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Monday Night Football in Week 15, the Lions are still the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Seattle’s win over the Eagles prevents the Lions from clinching a playoff berth in Week 15.
Saturday Games
Bengals (8-6) defeated Vikings (7-7)
Lions (10-4) defeated Broncos (7-7)
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Lions entering Saturday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Were the Lions’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances Entering Week 15?
The Lions enter Week 15 with the chance to clinch a playoff spot, but they will need a little help to make it happen this week. The good news is that if they don’t clinch this week, they should have a chance in the coming weeks. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Lions a 97.5% chance of making the playoffs this season. Therefore, it would take a monumental collapse from here for them to miss out.
First and foremost, let’s look at the 16 scenarios that could see the Lions clinch a playoff spot this week:
- Lions win, Seahawks lose or tie, and Packers lose or tie
- Lions win, Seahawks lose or tie, and Vikings lose or tie
- Lions win, Seahawks lose or tie, and Rams lose or tie
- Lions win, Rams lose or tie, Buccaneers lose, and Vikings lose or tie
- Lions win, Rams lose or tie, Packers lose, and Falcons lose or tie
- Lions Win, Rams lose to tie, and Falcons lose or tie.
- Lions win, Rams lose or tie, and Packers-Buccaneers tie
- Lions tie, Buccaneers lose, Seahawks lose, and Rams lose
- Lions tie, Falcons lose, Seahawks lose, and Rams lose
- Lions tie, Packers lose, Seahawks lose, and Rams lose
- Lions tie, Packers lose, Falcons lose or tie, and Seahawks lose
- Lions tie, Vikings lose, Seahawks lose, and Rams lose
- Lions tie, Packers lose, Rams lose, Falcons lose or tie, and Saints lose or tie
- Lions tie, Packers tie, Vikings lose, Seahawks lose, and Rams lose
- Lions tie, Packers tie, Vikings lose, Seahawks lose, and Falcons lose or tie
- Lions tie, Packers tie, Vikings lose, Rams lose, and Falcons lose or tie
The simplest of the playoff scenarios simply require the Lions to get at least 3.5 games ahead of the eighth-ranked team with three games to play. That can be achieved in multiple ways and requires help in a couple of games. However, most importantly, if the Lions win this week, they will have a win-and-in scenario in each of the last three weeks of the season, regardless of other results in Week 15.
When Can the Lions Clinch the NFC North?
According to the ESPN FPI, the Lions have an 83.7% chance of winning the division. They cannot clinch the division this week but will have a chance in Week 16 when they face the Minnesota Vikings, regardless of results this week.
MORE: Detroit Lions Depth Chart
The Lions enter Week 15 with a two-game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North. If both the Lions and Vikings win, then that will remain a two-game difference with three to play. If the Lions win and the Vikings lose, Detroit would simply need to avoid defeat in one of their final three games to clinch the division.
Regardless of the Packers’ result this week, the Lions are assured of being three games ahead of them with three to play if they win this week. That would mean just avoiding defeat in one game would ensure the Lions finish above the Packers.
The long and short of it is that the Lions can clinch the division in Week 16 if they match or better the Vikings’ and Packers’ results this week and then avoid defeat the following week.
A loss this week would put the Lions in a vulnerable position. If the Vikings and Packers both win, the Lions would lead them by one and two games, respectively. That would mean that the best the Lions can do is open up a two-game with two to play after next week and then potentially clinch in Week 17.
Additionally, if the Lions and Vikings both win this week, the Lions could still lose the division if they are swept by the Vikings, and Minnesota matches their Week 17 result. Even a Lions win and Vikings loss this week could be reversed if the Vikings go 3-0 down the stretch and the Lions lose in Week 17 to the Cowboys.
Can the Lions Still Get the NFC No. 1 Seed?
Mathematically, the Lions are still in the race for the number one seed, but they need a lot of help to get there. Detroit is one game back from the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles. They play the Cowboys in Week 17 but need at least one loss from both the 49ers and Eagles to even bring a tiebreaker situation into play.
MORE: Surprise Super Bowl Contenders
The Lions have not faced either the Eagles or 49ers, so a head-to-head will not be in play. Unfortunately for the Lions, they are 6-3 in conference play, while the 49ers are 8-1 and the Eagles are 6-2. The Eagles’ conference record will drop to three losses if they lose another game this season to match their overall record, while the 49ers would need to lose twice to NFC teams down the stretch.
If the Eagles and Lions end up tied on both overall record and conference record, it will come down to games against common opponents. They have five opponents in common: the Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Eagles are 4-1 against those opponents with one game to play. The Lions are 2-1 with three games to play.
There is a very realistic chance we could see the Eagles and Lions tied on overall record, conference record, and record against common opponents. That would send it to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which the Eagles currently have a big advantage in. Things there can change with the Lions set to play three games against teams over .500 in the next three weeks.
Regardless, the Lions need a lot to happen in the next four weeks if they are to clinch the number one seed. They need to win out, hope the 49ers lose twice, and the Eagles lose at least once. It’s not impossible, but not highly likely either.
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