The Detroit Lions have delivered on every bit of promise they carried into the 2023 NFL campaign and have positioned themselves to earn a playoff berth for the first time since 2016.
With five games remaining in the regular season, when can the Lions officially clinch the NFC North? And how close are they to earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye?
Week 14 Update
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
When Will the Detroit Lions Clinch the NFC North Title?
Having won four of their last five games, the Lions enter Week 14 with a three-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, both of whom are 6-6. All three teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.
MORE: Detroit Lions Depth Chart
While Detroit hasn’t yet secured the NFC North crown, the club is the overwhelming favorite. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Lions an 89.2% chance of winning the division.
The Vikings are a slightly more significant threat than the Packers in the NFC North, if only because Minnesota still gets to face Detroit twice over the final five weeks of the year. Kevin O’Connell’s club will receive its shot to take down the Lions, but Dan Campbell and Co. are still the likely pick.
Detroit controls its destiny. If the Lions win three of their final five games, they’ll win the North, regardless of how the Vikings and Packers perform to close the season. They could clinch as early as Week 15, but that would entail Detroit going 2-0 and Minnesota and Green Bay posting 0-2 marks over the next two weeks.
The Lions’ remaining schedule shouldn’t present much of a problem. They should be favored in four of their last five contest, with a penultimate regular-season game against the Dallas Cowboys the likely lone exception:
- Week 14: at CHI
- Week 15: vs. DEN
- Week 16: at MIN
- Week 17: at DAL
- Week 18: vs. MIN
Can the Lions Claim the NFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Lions will enter Week 14 as the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) held onto the conference’s top spot despite losing on Sunday. The team that beat them — the 9-3 San Francisco 49ers — have a better record in the NFC (7-1) than Detroit (6-2), so they’re currently in position as the No. 2 seed.
As such, the Lions probably need to win out, hope the Eagles drop at least two games, and hope the 49ers lose at least one contest.
While that scenario is theoretically possible, it’s unlikely. Detroit has just a 6% chance of earning the NFC’s top seed, in line with the Cowboys (5%) and well behind the Eagles (47%) and 49ers (42%).
The Lions are far more likely to earn the conference’s No. 2 or 3 seed. While those seeds don’t come with a first-round bye, they offer at least one significant advantage over No. 4 — the likelihood of avoiding the NFC East loser (Eagles or Cowboys) in the first round of the playoffs.
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