The Detroit Lions‘ preview dives into the fantasy football value of TE Sam LaPorta and the passing game, while the New Orleans Saints‘ fantasy outlook is centered around their banged-up passing game.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Lions -4
- Total: 46
- Lions implied points: 25
- Saints implied points: 21
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Last week, Goff recorded his fourth game this season with over 320 passing yards and now has multiple touchdown passes in each of his past three games (doubling his season total in the process). With at least 23 completions in six straight games, Goff’s floor is enough to make him a top-12 option, and his ability to excel indoors is certainly a plus in this spot.
But the ceiling isn’t overly appealing, given his struggles against strong defenses. Goff was QB18 against the Chiefs in Week 1, QB24 in Baltimore in Week 7, and QB16 in Week 11 against an upwards-trending Bears defense. The Saints are the seventh-best defense in pass yards per attempt and per game this season, making him a low-end option that carries quite a bit of risk.
Derek Carr: Much like Goff, Carr has been piling up the yardage of late, with 300+ passing yards in four of his past six games. The yardage has enabled him to post six top-15 finishes this season, but with only three multi-TD games on his résumé, Carr has yet to finish a week better than QB9 this season.
The Lions’ defense has cratered of late — 31 points per game allowed in the three games following their bye, up from 19.3 in their three games pre-bye — which makes Carr an interesting DFS play if and only if he has some of his pass catchers back on the field.
Michael Thomas was placed on IR ahead of Week 12, while Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed left last week’s loss early. If the injuries linger, Carr isn’t on my radar if I’m replacing Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson for the week. But should his receivers bounce back, Carr is very much in the mix with Jordan Love and Gardner Minshew as the top QB streamers of the week.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs: Part of Gibbs’ dominating snap share on Thanksgiving (60-23 over David Montgomery) was due to game script. But that sort of advantage doesn’t happen if the team isn’t comfortable in allowing it to.
The rookie has been a top-30 RB in every game he has played outside of his debut, and, of course, we had the four straight top-six finishes at the position prior to last week against the Packers.
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The skill set is nothing short of elite, and the Lions are seemingly increasingly open to the idea of featuring what Gibbs does well as they look to prepare for a deep playoff run.
Gibbs is clearly ahead of Montgomery in my Week 13 and rest-of-season ranks. He’s locked into your lineup every single week, no questions asked.
David Montgomery: There aren’t many offenses capable of sustaining a pair of top 20 running backs, but this Lions offense isn’t like most. Montgomery has a rushing TD in all three of his games back from injury and has scored in every single game that he’s finished healthy this season.
Montgomery loses the upside battle with Gibbs when it comes to role in the passing game (two catches on three targets in his past three games). I have a hard time seeing that change down the stretch, given Gibbs’ success, but that doesn’t mean Montgomery’s 13-16 carries should be on your bench.
I have Montgomery ranked as my RB16 this week and feel good about penciling him into all starting lineups.
Alvin Kamara: At this point in the fantasy season, minimizing risk and maximizing positive outs is the name of the game. Kamara has at least 33 receiving yards in seven of eight games (top-15 RB in seven of eight) and at least 15 carries in five of his past seven games.
His role is as safe as it gets and has me willing to overlook the fact that Kamara doesn’t have a gain longer than 25 yards this season. The Lions own the third-worst red-zone defense, and that adds TD equity to the already strong profile.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Perfect. That is the only word to describe the fact that St. Brown has 95 receiving yards or a touchdown in every single game he has played this season.
He’s the closest thing to inevitable at the WR position. Hopefully, you’re embracing the discount you got this summer in acquiring The Sun God — it won’t be that easy in 2024.
Josh Reynolds: He runs slightly ahead of Jameson Williams when it comes to snaps and routes, but it doesn’t matter. He’s been held under 20 receiving yards in four straight games and hasn’t had more than two catches in a game since mid-October.
This is an offense with plenty of potential and should finish the regular season strong — that doesn’t mean they need to have a secondary receiver. This offense runs through St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, don’t overthink it.
Chris Olave: We are monitoring his status after he left Week 12 with a concussion. All signs last week pointed to the Saints very much making getting Olave going a priority (three catches for 57 yards on the first drive, per the Week 13 Cheat Sheet), and it helped field a third straight top-20 finish despite the early exit (after seven straight weeks finishing outside of the top 20 at the position).
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Olave deserves to be locked into fantasy lineups across the board against the Lions defense that was systematically picked apart by Jordan Love on Thanksgiving. Just make sure you’re keeping tabs on his status as we approach kickoff.
Rashid Shaheed: The burner is dealing with a thigh injury that forced him to miss the second half last week. While the recovery process could work in such a way that he’s active this week, a less-than-full-strength player with a profile like this is not something I’m interested in as I battle for playoff positioning.
Shaheed deserves to be rostered. His upside is great enough to propel you to an upset in the right spot, but I want confirmation that he’s functioning at full strength before I even consider rolling those dice.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: With under 60 receiving yards in eight straight games, I understand the minor worries that are coming in on behalf of LaPorta. I’m not at all concerned.
LaPorta’s averaging 56.4 air yards over that stretch and is averaging a red-zone target per game over his past six, two underlying metrics that put him in position to return TE1 numbers sooner than later.
The Saints shut down the fearsome TE tandem in Atlanta last week, but in the two games prior, T.J. Hockenson and Cole Kmet combined for 16 catches, 189 yards, and three scores. You’re playing LaPorta with confidence this week and moving forward.
Juwan Johnson: The Lions’ defense has shown some serious cracks of late, and with Johnson coming off of seeing a season-high seven targets (85% route participation), he is plenty capable of getting you through this week.
And maybe more?
The schedule is awfully favorable (DET-CAR-NYG-LAR-TB) during the rest of the fantasy football season, and with all of the injuries at pass catcher, his role as a featured route runner is very much here to stay. I worry about the upside of this offense as a whole, and that’ll impact Johnson’s scoring equity, but with consistent volume, he should be just fine.
Taysom Hill: The Saints have been losing pass catchers left and right, but Hill remains. Against the Falcons last week, he ran seven times (the third time this season he has reached that level of usage on the ground) and caught both of his targets for 55 yards. Even with Johnson fully healthy, New Orleans is scheming Hill into their plans and making a point to get his versatile skill set on the field.
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It never feels comfortable, but Hill is easily inside of my top 10 at the position and is a tight end you can plug in across all formats.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Brock Purdy?
Goff is playing indoors, and that is always a good thing for his fantasy managers, but I lean Purdy here in the game of the week. The matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles sounds daunting, but it’s Philadelphia’s run defense that is elite — not their secondary.
Let’s not complicate things here. Goff faces a tough matchup and has less talent by his side to elevate his fantasy standing.
Should You Start Taysom Hill or George Kittle?
This call goes the way of Kittle, but not by as much as it would have if you asked me this question back in September. Both of these tight ends offer a wide range of outcomes, but much like the QB decision, I prefer the San Francisco 49ers matchup when it comes to producing through the air.
Due to the injuries in New Orleans, I expect Detroit to devote resources the way of Hill — a luxury the Eagles don’t have with Kittle. Both are easily in starting lineups this week, but I prefer Kittle if forced to pick between the two.
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