The Detroit Lions‘ fantasy outlook revolves around Jared Goff’s spot in the Week 16 QB rankings, while the Minnesota Vikings‘ preview takes a look at Jordan Addison’s fantasy football value after a monster Week 15 performance.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Lions -3
- Total: 47
- Lions implied points: 25
- Vikings implied points: 22
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Goff may be on the road, but at least he’s playing indoors.
He is coming off of a dominant effort on Saturday night against the Broncos (278 pass yards and five touchdowns) and has multiple passing scores in each of his past five games when playing in a weatherproof setting.
As for the Vikings, they forced Jake Browning into one bad pass over four quarters (324 yards, two TDs, and one INT), allowing the castaway to look comfortable throughout.
Over 70% of yardage gained against the Vikings comes through the air, and Goff should be able to exploit that in a significant way on Sunday.
Nick Mullens: There were a pair of mistakes in Saturday’s loss to the Bengals, but by completing 26 of 33 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns, the good certainly outweighs the bad.
The most encouraging part of Mullens’ big Week 15 performance, for me, was how we got there. He didn’t rely on Justin Jefferson making massive plays after the catch or dumping off 10 passes to T.J. Hockenson.
Sure, that dynamic duo resulted in half of his completions, but the bulk of fantasy numbers came on the six passes he directed toward Jordan Addison (111 yards and two touchdowns).
If Mullens is that comfortable in his third option, there is upside left to access should one of his elite playmakers make a splash play or two. Mullens ranks outside of my top 15, but it’s not hard to envision this weatherproof game shooting out, which puts him in a nice spot to build on the success he had in his first start of the season.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs: The fantasy community was ahead of the Lions on this one, as we wanted to see Gibbs unleashed from the get-go. It took us a while to get there, but better late than never.
Gibbs was RB3 last week in a perfect matchup against the Broncos. He’s now been a top-three back in four of eight games since returning to action (average finish over that stretch: RB11).
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Loyal fantasy managers who stood by their preseason takes are being rewarded in a major way, which should continue. I have Gibbs ranked as a low-end RB1 this week, and I might be a little low.
David Montgomery: The goal-line role and role in the ground game make Montgomery an RB2 who you can play, but he’s pretty clearly the secondary option in this offense. His value is gradually trending in the wrong direction — his average finishes by two game segments of his past six:
- Weeks 10-11: RB9 (both RB1 finishes)
- Weeks 12-13: RB14 (both top-15 finishes)
- Weeks 14-15: RB24 (both finishes outside of the top 20)
You’re laying him for the floor, understanding that the ceiling isn’t likely for us to see down the stretch of this fantasy season.
Alexander Mattison: An ankle injury suffered in Week 14 kept Mattison out of the overtime loss in Cincinnati last Saturday, and he may have lost his job in the process.
We will see where his health trends in the final few days this week, but with Ty Chandler taking advantage of an advantageous role last week (26 touches for 157 yards and a touchdown), Mattison’s role that he left behind is not the role he’ll assume when healthy.
Ty Chandler: The Vikings had a plan from the jump last week, and it was clear: Trust their backup RB more than their backup QB. Chandler touched the ball eight times on their opening drive, racking up 46 yards and their first opening drive TD of the season.
The matchup this week is more difficult than it was last season, but Minnesota RBs did run for three scores against Detroit a season ago. Chandler has been a top-25 RB in three of four games with 10+ carries this season, a box he figures to check this week regardless of Mattison’s status.
I expect this to be a drive-by-drive situation if Mattison is deemed fully healthy. If that’s the case, both make for risky Flex options.
If, however, Chandler is set to fill the role he did last week again (95.8% of RB carries and 100% of RB targets), he’s to be viewed as a viable RB2 and a reminder that fantasy championships require activity on the wire as much as anything!
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: It was good to see The Sun God rebound from a Week 14 dud with another 100-yard performance that resulted in his fourth top-10 finish of the season.
Generally speaking, betting on Detroit players is a better idea at home than on the road, but with this road game coming indoors, I’m not worried. St. Brown should be considered nothing short of elite. If you asked me to pick one receiver in this game to play, I’d go with him over Justin Jefferson.
Yeah, he’s that good.
Justin Jefferson: Welcome back, old friend! Jefferson made it through all of Week 15 healthy and was even chirping at different points of the game. The All-Pro posted a 31.3% target share (seven receptions), and his 11.9 half-PPR fantasy points are a nice place to start for what fantasy managers hope is a race to the finish line.
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The situation is different, but last December, Jefferson did set a franchise record for receiving yards in a game with 223 against these Lions immediately after a game that featured him catching seven passes.
As long as he is active, Jefferson is a lineup lock. He looked the part of an asset last week and can only benefit from having an extra day to prepare for a divisional rival this week. You spent your top pick this summer on Jefferson — let’s hope he can repay you for that confidence with your season on the line.
Jordan Addison: Sometimes, the universe just aligns, and sometimes, it’s important to note such situations as a way to highlight a greater point.
2022, K.J. Osborn:
- Height: 5’11”
- Week 15 breakout (on a Saturday): 10 catches for 157 yards and one TD (26.7 FP)
- Games 11-13: 16.8 half-PPR fantasy points
2023, Jordan Addison:
- Height: 5’11”
- Week 15 breakout (last Saturday): Six catches for 111 yards and two TDs (26.1 FP)
- Games 11-13: 16.5 half-PPR fantasy points
Weird, right? I’m not suggesting that we should have seen it coming; I just found it interesting. Another part that I found interesting — and scary — was the encore performance.
- Osborn Week 16, 2022: 3.2 fantasy points, 8.5% target share
Both of Addison’s touchdowns last week came with a high degree of difficulty and/or luck, plays that are tough to use in a big way when projecting forward. Was I impressed with Nick Mullens at points last week? I sure was, but some of the concerns I voiced before Jefferson’s return when it came to Addison remain.
At best, he’s a Flex play this week — a best-case scenario that I’m not comfortable banking on with my fantasy season on the line.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: The rookie scored three times on six targets against the Broncos, continuing his storybook start to his career. With at least five grabs in three of his past four games and nine scores on his résumé, the floor/ceiling combination is nothing short of elite for LaPorta as we round out the season.
The NFC North has given LaPorta troubles (one top-15 finish in four games per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet), but that’s more me wanting to share a weird stat than it is actionable. He’s a Tier 1 tight end for me and a threat every week to lead the position in fantasy points, something LaPorta’s already done three times this season.
T.J. Hockenson: With Nick Mullens under center, Hockenson hauled in six of seven targets for 63 yards — essentially what we’ve come to expect from Minnesota’s tight end (Weeks 1-14: 6.5 catches for 64.5 yards per game) this season.
The elevated floor is what you love about rostering Hockenson. Could he hit a ceiling game in a revenge game spot? All four of his double-digit target games this season have come indoors, a box that Hock will check for the remainder of this regular season.
You’re playing him without much of a thought, and if the Lions can force the Vikings to be aggressive on the offensive end, he is live to lead the position in fantasy points during the semifinals of most leagues.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Sam Howell?
Howell has been consistent this year, so I’m not writing him off of one disastrous week, but Goff playing indoors gets the nod here. He is coming off his best game of the season, and I like his plethora of options in the short passing game against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Goff holds the edge in both floor and ceiling in this head-to-head matchup, making him my clear play!
Should You Start Jordan Addison or Curtis Samuel?
Addison gets the nod by four spots in my rank, a gap that isn’t nearly as wide as most have for this decision. His breakout in Week 15 was encouraging, though a 79% completion game from Nick Mullens isn’t something I’m banking on repeating.
Samuel scored twice last week to break a two-month drought and has seen his usage gradually trend in the right direction. That said, the floor for a player like Samuel is low and very much in play, given his matchup with the Jets. Addison carries a similar floor, but one that is less likely to be realized in a plus-matchup in a game where I expect points to be put on the board.
Addison is the better Flex play this week, though I’m not labeling either Week 15 standout as a must-start in Week 16.
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