The Detroit Lions‘ fantasy outlook revolves around their talented backfield, while the Dallas Cowboys‘ preview discusses the fantasy football value of Brandin Cooks and others. Who should you aim to start in this Saturday Night showdown?
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -6.5
- Total: 53.5
- Lions implied points: 23.5
- Cowboys implied points: 30
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: For the first time since last October, Goff has completed over 70% of his passes in consecutive games, and go figure, both games were played indoors.
- Outdoors since 2022: 2.8% TD rate
- Indoors since 2022: 6.3% TD rate
This game will be another weatherproof one for the Lions, and while the Cowboys’ defense is better than the Broncos or Vikings that Goff has been efficient against over the past two weeks, their aggression is very much a dual-edged sword.
My concern is that the Cowboys miss fewer tackles than any other team, thus limiting the impact of those quick strikes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. That said, the expanding role of Jameson Williams gives Goff access to enough upside to rank as a QB1 for me in this less-than-advantageous matchup.
Dak Prescott: With multiple TD passes in eight of nine games and 25+ rushing yards in consecutive games within a single season for the first time in nearly 1,900 days, the floor case for Prescott is what you’re latching onto.
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We know the ceiling production is there when all is clicking on this strong Dallas offense, and this matchup is unlikely to suppress that for four quarters (27.1 points per game allowed since the bye, per the Week 17 Cheat Sheet).
I have Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen as my Tier 1 QBs this week, both as heavy home favorites. Yet, Prescott is the next signal-caller in my ranks, leading the second tier that includes current MVP favorite Lamar Jackson.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs: The rookie took a little bit of time to carve out a fantasy-friendly role, but he has gotten there at the perfect time and is showing zero signs of slowing down.
- 2022 Christian McCaffrey: 1,880 yards, 85 catches, and 10 TDs
- Gibbs’ 17-game pace since Week 7: 1,774 yards, 70 catches, and 19 TDs
Gibbs has been a top-six producer at the position in six of those nine games and is about as valuable as any dynasty running back.
I don’t care what you think about David Montgomery’s role around the goal line of this tough matchup — Gibbs is locked and loaded into your lineup with the expectation that he can make a splash in your fantasy Super Bowl at the level he has for over two months now.
David Montgomery: Gibbs’ emergence has’t really come at Montgomery’s expense. The veteran RB scored again last week, giving him 11 in 12 games this season. He again received 19 touches, a number he has hit on the nose in three of four games this month.
The upside isn’t what it was in the first month of the season, but Montgomery’s floor remains encouraging in an offense we trust and a defense that the Lions would rather stay off the field. He has finished each of the past five weeks as an RB2, and I see no reason why this week would be any different against the 21st-ranked red-zone defense.
Tony Pollard: Has one play ever summed up a fantasy season like Pollard finding a way to not score on that dump-off pass last week in Miami?
We marveled at his explosive nature entering this season, and yet, it’s been more than a month since we saw him pick up more than 16 yards on a touch. The Lions rank fourth in terms of preventing yards per carry this season, so banking on an increase in efficiency when you need it most isn’t exactly the percentage play.
That said, we’re talking about the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, and Pollard is nothing if not used in close. How effective he is on those carries could swing your league winner this season. Will he be the GOAT or the goat with all of the chips in the middle of the table?
I tend to weigh scoring opportunities more heavily for players than efficiency and efficiency more than opportunities when it comes to defenses. That process still has me ranking Pollard as a lineup lock this week. However, I can’t deny the worries that come with doing so.
Rico Dowdle: It was cute a month ago when we all tried to breathe life into Dowdle as a Flex-worthy player with Pollard struggling, but those conversations are dead.
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Dowdle has touched the ball just seven times over the past two weeks and doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups. At this point, he’s simply Pollard insurance, and with no signs of a lingering issue for the starter, Dowdle isn’t a viable commodity in Week 17.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: With a touchdown in consecutive games for the third time this season and a score in five of his past seven, St. Brown has earned a label as one of the game’s most consistent producers.
He has 10 games this season with at least nine targets and is a true threat to swing your matchup for the better every single time he takes the field, regardless of the matchup.
CeeDee Lamb: It’s not crazy to put Lamb in the WR1 overall conversation for next season, as the 24-year-old already has a career year with two games left to go and has stability under center.
With at least 10 targets in four straight and 9+ looks in nine straight, Lamb stands to pick apart a Lions defense that is running on fumes these days. He’s my top-ranked receiver for Week 17 and profiles as a potential league winner for those involved in a Super Bowl matchup.
Brandin Cooks: He bailed you out by scoring on one of his two targets, but you’re walking a very thin line by starting Cooks these days.
The veteran receiver falls just outside of my top 30 this week despite an exploitable matchup due to his lack of target volume. Since earning 10 targets against the Giants in Week 10, Cooks is averaging just 4.3 targets per game, making him a player that needs to score to make him worth your while.
He’s been able to fulfill that promise plenty over the past 2.5 months, but understand that you’re betting against career trends if you’re betting on his scoring equity to sustain.
- 2023: TD on 9.2% of targets
- 2022: TD on 3.2% of targets
- 2021: TD on 4.5% of targets
- 2020: TD on 5.0% of targets
- 2019: TD on 2.8% of targets
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: The rookie tight end gave us nothing but stability through October, but his production of late has been about as sporadic as it gets.
- Week 16 at MIN: 3 catches for 18 yards
- Week 15 vs. DEN: 5 catches for 56 yards and 3 TDs
- Week 14 at CHI: 2 catches for 23 yards
- Week 13 at NO: 9 catches for 140 yards and a TD
- Week 12 vs. GB: 5 catches for 47 yards and a TD
- Week 11 vs. CHI: 3 catches for 18 yards
There’s nothing actionable to do here. The ceiling LaPorta has shown us is more than enough at the TE position to start with blind confidence. That said, him putting you behind the eight ball is much more in the range of outcomes now than it was earlier in the year.
Due to the lack of TE depth, there’s nothing you can do here other than hope that his George Kittle-esque production patterns pan out this week and you land on the right side of variance.
Jake Ferguson: The production for the second-year TE hasn’t been overwhelming of late, but you’re betting on the 32 targets Ferguson has seen over the past four weeks and plugging him in without much of a second thought.
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He may not possess the slate-breaking upside of a player like LaPorta, but the fact that the volume is consistent and that four of his five scores this season have come at home should provide some confidence.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Justin Fields?
I give the edge to Fields in this spot. While I like Goff playing indoors against a defense that can be overly aggressive, the floor of Fields’ rushing ability is more appealing to me at this point in the fantasy season.
The projected possession count also very much works in Chicago’s favor, as they oppose an offense with limited potential while Detroit faces a team that can sustain drives.
Should You Start Brandin Cooks or Drake London?
I’d rather bet on Cooks in this spot, understanding that there is risk in both. London projects to win the target count battle in this head-to-head situation, but the difference in quality of opportunity is great enough for me to lean the way of a player like Cooks, whose scoring equity is far superior.
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