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Determining Baker Mayfield’s Trade Value: What should the Browns get in return?

The Cleveland Browns will try to trade disgruntled QB Baker Mayfield after acquiring Deshaun Watson in a huge deal with the Houston Texans.

The Cleveland Browns put themselves in an awkward position when they went all-in on a blockbuster trade for controversial QB Deshaun Watson. During the final leg of the Watson trade process, the Browns aggressively pursued their eventual franchise QB while shunning their incumbent signal-caller, Baker Mayfield.

Baker Mayfield requests a trade from Browns

With rumors swirling, Mayfield demanded a trade on Thursday, even before the Browns acquired Watson on Friday. The team denied that request and then traded for Watson after he changed his mind about coming to Cleveland. Now, the Browns will look to move on from Mayfield — a disgruntled former first overall pick — and recoup some trade assets that were sent to Houston for Watson.

The Browns sent three first-round picks and a third-round selection to the Texans. They also swapped their fourth-round pick for a fifth-round pick. Watson’s trade value compared to Mayfield’s appeal is like a whale shark swimming next to a swordfish.

Baker Mayfield’s trade value

Mayfield’s trade value is an intriguing debate among pundits and fans. While he is a former first overall pick who led the Browns to the playoffs just a year ago, he’s not carrying the same allure of a player with a franchise QB background.

Mayfield dealt with a torn labrum throughout most of last season and had surgery on the injury in January. While he showed toughness by playing through the injury, his play suffered mightily, as he finished with 3,010 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The Browns failed to make the playoffs, and Mayfield was sacked 43 times in just 14 games.

Mayfield is also on the final year of his rookie contract. His guaranteed $18.9 million fifth-year option salary puts him in an awkward spot on the trade market.

A team trading notable assets for a QB would typically like to have long-term security upon arrival, but Mayfield also hasn’t played to the level of a QB deserving a market-setting extension. To trade for Mayfield — and his guaranteed one-year salary — a team would be rolling the dice. Therefore, they’ll want to make a more calculated gamble.

Mayfield would have leverage with new team

Even the Washington Commanders, who were bashed for trading two third-round picks to the Indianapolis Colts for QB Carson Wentz, had the ability to acquire a multi-year deal that didn’t need to be reworked. Mayfield would have leverage with his new team if they wanted to seek an extension. His deal is fully guaranteed, and he could wait out his new team to force them to use the franchise tag on him if he performs well.

It only takes one team’s desire to sink or swim a trade asset. While the Browns likely want a second- or third-round pick for Mayfield, a squad like the Colts or the Carolina Panthers could simply wait things out until the draft and force the Browns into a last-minute deal that causes Cleveland to take what it can get.

A third-round pick seems reasonable, especially for the Colts, who have limited draft resources but a lot of cap space to absorb Mayfield’s salary. However, for a team like the Panthers, who also have Sam Darnold playing on an $18.9 million fifth-year option, the choice to trade for Mayfield would likely need to come with an extension to lower his cap number. The Panthers would also then need to trade Darnold. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers’ picks are much higher in each round than the Colts’ selections.

The Browns traded backup Case Keenum to the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. While Mayfield isn’t likely to see the same return as Watson — or even Wentz — he should be able to command at least a mid-round pick from his future employer.

Not the only QB on the market

Mayfield’s trade value is also reflective of the market as well. San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Philadelphia Eagles QB Gardner Minshew are also available on the trade block. Garoppolo is more prolific, while Minshew is more cost-effective.

If the Colts or Panthers balk at the idea of landing Mayfield in favor of trading for Garoppolo or Minshew, then Mayfield’s prospects become very limited, perhaps only to the Seattle Seahawks. A one-team market could hurt Mayfield’s value even more.

Ultimately, the Browns should be in a rush to trade Mayfield. The QB’s preference is to join the Colts, as reported by Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline and Aaron Wilson. Still, he might not have a choice if Indianapolis decides to look elsewhere.

For Mayfield and the Browns, a quick divorce is ideal for his trade market, which should hover around a 2022 third-round pick at best.

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