The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can the Browns QB bounce back and look like his former self in 2023, and should Watson be a player you draft this year?
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Deshaun Watson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The 2022 season was always going to be a wash for Watson. He was by far the most polarizing player coming into the year, and for a good reason, following the laundry list of off-field issues that dominated the headlines.
Having not played since 2020, Watson’s original suspension was settled at 11 games, and he didn’t make his Browns debut until week 13. It was fitting that it was against the Houston Texans.
While I highly doubt anyone honestly expected to see the quarterback who finished as a top-five QB in each of his first three years as a starter show up out of the gates, the rust was not only apparent but long-lasting.
Watson completed 90 of his 170 passing attempts for 1,102 yards and seven touchdowns against five interceptions in six games, adding an additional 175 yards and a score on 36 rushing attempts. Watson was 19th in xFPTs at -1.12, and, between Weeks 13 and 18, was the QB16 overall and 20th in points per game at 14.2 PPR.
Watson did string together back-to-back top-eight performances to close the season out, but he was 20th or worse in three of his first four contests. Additionally, Watson was 33rd of 40 qualified QBs in CPOE+EPA, behind the likes of Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson.
But that is not the type of player we know Watson could be or has been in the past. Before 2022, Watson never averaged fewer than 21.3 points per game in a season, and his “lowest” finish was as the QB5 overall. From a talent perspective, Watson was always a top-five QB, but those days might very well be gone.
With the likes of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman joining Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Nick Chubb, Watson has the most well-rounded offense of his career around him.
I favor Watson to surpass the 4,100 passing-yard mark while adding nearly 400 yards on the ground with 32+ total touchdowns as a relatively attainable fantasy football projection for 2023.
After what we saw with the questionable play from several quarterbacks last year, Watson’s 2023 turnaround will be a welcome site for fantasy managers and Browns fans alike.
Should You Draft Deshaun Watson This Year?
Watson should still be a top-10 fantasy quarterback for 2023. No one is asking him to be the player he once was, just better than the player we saw last year. As much as we might like it to happen sometimes, we can never expect Cleveland to be a pass-happy team like the Bengals. It’s just not in their DNA.
While they did throw on 55% of their plays, Cleveland’s -7.6% passing rate over expectation was the fifth lowest in the league. Watson also spent more time under center than nearly anyone else, with 48% of the Browns’ first downs being in single-back formation (fifth highest).
Ideally, Cleveland will get Watson more involved in play action and shotgun, where they can utilize his athletic ability as a rusher.
But at the end of the day, his numbers are somewhat capped due to what HC Kevin Stefanski wants to run on offense. But that certainly does not mean you should not draft Watson in 2023.
Watson is my QB10 on the season and in the same tier as Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa. There is a distinct advantage to having one of the elite quarterbacks in fantasy football. Anyone who rostered Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts last year knows this. But in a 1QB league, where only 12 quarterbacks are getting started, it becomes much easier to wait on the position.
That’s where Watson becomes far more viable, as rather than drafting a quarterback in the first 3-5 rounds, managers can wait until they are one of the last in their league to draft a quarterback and still walk away with someone with top-six upside like Watson.
Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Tua all have as much variability in their potential outcomes as Watson. Yet, we’re talking about a range that spans from QB5 all the way to QB11. Unless you think there is a significant difference or an outlier in this group, waiting on the best value might be the best option.
Even though Fields will take a Hurts-level rise in 2023, he has as much risk, if not more, than Watson. Sure, the ceiling might be higher, but is that worth the draft capital investment when we are dealing with significant uncertainties?
Throw in the weapons around Watson that create extremely affordable stacking options for both redraft and Best Ball, and Watson is a quarterback I will likely draft in several leagues in 2023. While not my primary target, a pivot for Watson will always be in the back of my mind for every draft I have until the season starts.