Deshaun Watson’s Cleveland Browns tenure hasn’t exactly gone the way the team had hoped so far. With his fantasy football value lower than ever, is it over for Watson, or can the QB reemerge as a high-end fantasy starter in 2024?
Deshaun Watson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Once upon a time, Watson was an elite fantasy quarterback. For the first four years of his career, he averaged 24.7, 21.3, 22.0, and 23.5 fantasy points per game (ppg), respectively, in Years 1-4. If we saw that Watson last season, even despite his shoulder issue, he’d be going inside the top eight fantasy quarterbacks, no doubt about it.
For various reasons which everyone is well versed in, it’s been quite a long time since Watson played quarterback at a high level. The last time Watson was a viable fantasy starter was back in 2020. That was four years ago.
Watson missed all of the 2021 season, as well as the first 11 games of the 2022 season. After he returned, Watson looked downright awful, completing just 58.2% of his passes with a career-worst 6.5 yards per attempt.
Most of us chalked it up to rust. After all, it had been nearly two years since he played in a professional football game. At 28 years old ahead of the 2023 season, there was no reason to think Watson’s skills were in decline. Then, the season happened.
There’s no way to fully gauge how much of Watson’s poor performance was due to his shoulder injury. There’s also no way to sugarcoat Watson’s 2024 season. It wasn’t good.
Watson completed 61.4% of his passes and once again averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. In each of the past two years, he threw exactly seven touchdowns against four and five interceptions, respectively.
On the ground, Watson wasn’t quite the runner he was during the early part of his career. However, overall, he looked fine, averaging 29.2 and 23.7 rushing yards per game, respectively, in Years 1 and 2 in Cleveland. Those averages are more in line with what he did in 2019 and 2020 and no cause for concern.
Watson now enters the 2024 season with a whole host of red flags. He hasn’t looked good since 2020. He’s coming off consecutive seasons where he played only six games, the most recent of which was cut short due to a shoulder injury that was still being managed this offseason.
If Watson can return to his former glory, he will be an elite value at his QB22 ADP. Is there a chance that happens? Absolutely. For some of you, the mere possibility will be enough to take a chance on him at his cost of free. As for me, I believe that Watson is no longer a good quarterback.
We just saw the Denver Broncos willing to completely give up on Russell Wilson after two underwhelming years following a massive contract. I have zero doubts the Browns are willing to do the same if Watson cannot perform.
The Browns made the playoffs last season with 38-year-old Joe Flacco starting five games. Head coach Kevin Stefanski knows his team is talented enough to win without great quarterback play.
Now entering his third year with the Browns, Watson is no longer going to be protected by his massive contract. If he plays like he has the past two seasons, I fully expect the team to be willing to turn to Jameis Winston. In fact, that is the outcome I am predicting for Watson this season.
I ranked Watson as my QB21, which means there’s absolutely no chance I ever take him in a single-QB league. I acknowledge the upside that technically exists. However, I don’t believe the chance he reaches his ceiling outcome is high enough to be worth drafting.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Deshaun Watson
After having a full offseason to prepare with his new team and his lengthy suspension from the NFL in the distant past, Watson averaged just 15.2 fantasy points per game (PPG) — which ranked 27th on a per-game basis at the quarterback position in 2023.
Sure, it is worth mentioning Watson was battling a shoulder injury, but his lack of production while on the field last year should certainly concern fantasy managers that we will never see the dominant fantasy production we became accustomed to when Watson was under center for the Houston Texans.
Watson averaged just 186 passing yards per game and never topped 50 yards rushing in during the 2023 campaign.
Again, the context of a shoulder injury certainly could’ve played a factor in these disappointing stat totals, but projecting Watson for a full-blown return to fantasy glory still feels aggressively optimistic.
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What is particularly puzzling is the incredible production the team got from veteran backup quarterback Joe Flacco for a five-game stretch from Weeks 13-17. During that span, Flacco was the QB2 overall in fantasy football with 1,616 yards and 13 TDs.
Flacco threw for over 250 in all five games, which is a mark Watson hit only once during his six appearances in 2023. The fact that Flacco — who signed with the team during the middle of the season — vastly outproduced Watson is a little concerning.
Watson will turn 29 years old this season and still has all of the physical tools that made him such a fantasy force back in Houston, which does give him some upside in relation to where you’ll be able to get him on draft day. Yet, I can’t help but feel that Watson is on a bit of a make-or-break year in Cleveland if his middling play from last year continues in 2024.
Watson’s ADP at No. 157 in the 14th round as the QB22 overall showcases just how far he has fallen out of the elite category in the eyes of fantasy football managers entering the 2024 NFL season.
For some additional context, Watson is being drafted behind Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Baker Mayfield at the moment. None of them can hold a candle to Watson’s rushing upside at this point in their respective careers.
The argument can be made Watson is one of the few quarterbacks who possesses top three upside at the position past the 12th round of fantasy drafts.
The concerns about his significant drop in passing production and efficiency are well deserved, but let’s not act as if he is completely cooked from a physical talent standpoint.
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Ultimately, Watson is a dual-threat weapon who has competent weapons, a quality offensive line, and a solid offensive play-caller in 2024. The table is set for a potential return to fantasy greatness if Watson can manage to recapture the form we saw during his days with the Houston Texans — which makes a nice fantasy sleeper option this season.
