During the 2023 fantasy football draft season, both Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard were selected in the first two rounds in almost every league. But over halfway through the season, neither running back has truly been worth their ADP.
In Week 11, who is the better start between Henry (vs. Jacksonville) and Pollard (vs. Carolina)? Let’s take a look.
Should You Start Derrick Henry or Tony Pollard This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Henry is the player to start. His projected 14.2 PPR points include projections of 66 rushing yards, 1.8 receptions, 22.3 receiving yards, and 0.6 touchdowns. Henry’s projected stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus projection for Pollard (13.5 PPR points).
However, in my rankings, I believe Pollard will have a better performance this week than Henry. For starters, he’s playing a much worse run defense than Henry; Carolina is allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Additionally, Dallas’ offense is currently performing as effectively as any unit in the NFL, scoring over 40 points in two of the past three games.
On the flip side, Tennessee is playing a Jacksonville team that has been average against the run this year. But the Jaguars are favored to win this game, and Henry’s workload significantly decreased when the Titans are playing from behind.
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Last week, in a game the Titans were trailing for the majority of, Henry played his second-fewest snaps in any game this year. That’s not a good sign for Henry managers moving forward.
With the Cowboys offense clicking and a bad run defense in Carolina up next, Pollard is both the safer and higher-upside start this week.
Henry’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Henry is coming off his second-worst fantasy performance of the season, a measly 3.0 PPR points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yes, the Buccaneers’ run defense is among the NFL’s best, but Henry’s lack of success and workload is troublesome for his fantasy managers moving forward.
It’s no secret that Tennessee has favored Tyjae Spears over Henry in obvious passing situations. That was the case again this past week, as Henry played just 28 snaps (43%) compared to Spears’ 38 snaps (60%) in a game the Titans were trailing for most of the time.
Henry should theoretically have an easier matchup this week against Jacksonville, a defense giving up the 16th-most fantasy points to running backs. But Henry will need to be effective early in the game to have a solid fantasy performance because history tells us head coach Mike Vrabel will turn to Spears if the Titans fall behind.
It is worth noting that Henry has historically played well against Jacksonville, though. In two games against the Jaguars last season, Henry averaged 115 rushing yards per game and topped the century mark both times. He also caught a combined four catches for 53 yards in those two games to go along with one touchdown.
If Henry’s fantasy managers want to lean on the running back’s historical success against Jacksonville, start him with confidence. For those who only value this year’s body of work, Henry might be a tough sell to keep in your starting lineup.
Pollard’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Perhaps no running back has been more disappointing in fantasy football over the past two months than Pollard. Despite seeing a solid volume of work on a weekly basis, Pollard has scored double-digit PPR points just once in his past six games, even with Dallas’ offense performing as one of the NFL’s best.
For Pollard’s fantasy managers, this week against Carolina has to be a breakout spot. The Panthers’ run defense, simply put, is terrible. The unit is allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season; D’Onta Foreman ran for 80 yards and a touchdown against this group just last week.
The Cowboys remain committed to Pollard as their lead back, even though Rico Dowdle has seen an increased role as of late. Pollard is due for a touchdown — he hasn’t hit paydirt since Week 1 when he scored twice. There’s no better “get-right” spot for a struggling running back this season than against Carolina.
It’s understandable if Pollard managers have grown frustrated with the running back’s lack of production. But you have to trust him in Week 11 against Carolina. If another bad performance is the result, then there’s a much larger discussion surrounding Pollard moving forward.
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