Fantasy football managers are groomed to chase volume and scoring opportunities, two boxes that Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams check with ease.
The Los Angeles Rams brought in support for Williams, while the Baltimore Ravens brought in Henry to replace the surprisingly productive Gus Edwards.
Both of these backs are going in the second round of drafts this season, meaning you’ll likely have to split hairs as you’re on the clock. Allow me to make my case for the optimal pick when pressed with that difficult discussion.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Derrick Henry
Henry hasn’t missed more than a single game in seven of his eight NFL seasons, and he has reached at least 14 total touchdowns in four of his past five seasons. The concerns around Henry have always been the same: he doesn’t catch enough passes. Fortunately, scoring TDs has elevated his floor in the way that most backs rely on pass catching.
That said, Henry has caught 81.4% of his targets over the past three seasons. So while I’m not putting 50-catch expectations on him, who’s to say he can’t top 33 receptions for the first time in his career as a focal piece of Todd Monken’s offense?
There are also some concerns out there that Lamar Jackson’s athleticism could cut into Henry’s bottom line. I’ll listen to the train of thought that 100 rushing yards per game is unlikely — despite Henry having been in that range in four straight seasons before 2023 — but Jackson doesn’t profile as a threat the way Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts are in terms of rushing scoring equity.
Jackson’s best season in total rushing touchdowns saw fewer scores than those two bulldozers average per season, so I’m not sweating that. Yes, he’ll chew up some yards, but if that means extending drives and delivering Henry to the goal line, isn’t that a net positive?
Derrick Henry hit that Wisconsin LB so hard that he became an Alabama fan and tried to change teams 😂 pic.twitter.com/PMcMjuxX3J
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 19, 2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Kyren Williams
During his breakout campaign, Williams caught only 66.7% of his targets. Running back catch rate is consistently in the 70% region, and due to the low-risk nature of those targets, there’s no real reason to think that he won’t trend upward. If that happens, he may not only return first-round value, but he also stands to join the top tier at the position.
Last season, Williams showcased elite vision and physical running. He led all qualified RBs (minimum 110 carries) in yards per carry gained before contact, a stat that speaks to his connectivity with the offensive line as well as his ability to take advantage of overcommitted defenders.
And once Williams gets running downhill, forget about it.
Off the top of your head, who are some of the hardest runners in the league?
My guess is that Jonathan Taylor (one broken tackle every 12.1 carries in 2023), Derrick Henry (12.2), and Isiah Pacheco (13.7) all likely come to mind.
Well, Williams shed a defender once every 11 carries a season ago, putting him in a position to repeat or even improve upon his efficiency. The Blake Corum truthers out there are loud, and they might not be wrong. He put nice tape out there while at Michigan, but what’s the end game in 2024?
Does he take 10% of Williams’ base work? Could you talk yourself up to 15%? Even if that occurs, 85% of Williams’ role last season finishes as RB7 in terms of touches per game.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
Despite my dismissing of Corum as a true threat to Williams, the fact of the matter is that he is more of a potential fantasy drain in Los Angeles than anything on Baltimore’s roster is to Henry right now.
Entering the season, I have Williams’ best case looking an awful lot like Henry’s mean case. And whenever that happens, the decision for me is relatively simple.
The schedule can often be a nice tiebreaker in these coin-flip scenarios, and it, too, favors Henry.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
Henry gets the putrid New York Giants in Week 15 before taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans to wrap up the fantasy season. Both of those games come on short rest for all involved, and the only thing worse than tackling Henry is tackling a reasonably rested Henry (Week 14 bye) in the winter.
While that’s a nice runout, Williams could see fatigue set in thanks to an early bye (Week 6) and a late-season two-step of road games against the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets back-to-back starting in Week 15.
We are looking at a pair of stars that are very much worth your consideration in Round 2.
That said, I believe only one of these players has the chance to crown you this season, and it’s King Henry in Year 1 as a Raven.
