The Baltimore Ravens will face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Derrick Henry.
Is Derrick Henry Playing vs. the Steelers?
Henry is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Ravens’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Derrick Henry on Wild Card Weekend?
Too much pride in Pittsburgh?
Derrick Henry has produced 25.2% over expectations against the Steelers this season. While he is more than capable of doing that against any defensive structure, I find it odd that Pittsburgh loaded the box on just 38.5% of his career (the rest of the NFL: 50.3%).
Henry has produced 40.3% over expectations in three career postseason games; given the direction of things, running through worn-down defenses might be standard over the next month.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
It shouldn’t be overlooked that Baltimore’s bye came five weeks after Pittsburgh’s. The Ravens are the more talented and physical team with less fatigue and a projected positive game script. There’s always the risk that this game is an ugly AFC North battle like we’ve seen in the past, but Henry is in a great spot, even against a strong defense that has already seen him twice.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Saturday, Henry is projected to score 20.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 21.1 rushing attempts for 100 yards and 1 touchdowns. It also includes 1.7 receptions for 16.8 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Steelers' Defense
The Pittsburgh Steelers tumbled out of the top 10 after slumping against superior competition during their four-game losing streak. From Weeks 15-18, Pittsburgh ranked 30th in pass defense success rate and 28th in EPA per play.
The season-long numbers still portray an elite pass defense, but some of the cracks that were there all along fully broke. For instance, the Steelers finished 18th in pressure rate without blitzing, signaling the erosion of a long, ferocious pass rush. They also finished 19th in sack rate despite another All-Pro-worthy season from T.J. Watt.
Injuries in the secondary were a huge problem, with starters Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and DeShon Elliott all missing multiple games. That ultimately cost Pittsburgh the division and will result in a tough Wild Card road trip to Baltimore.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, January 11. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. GB)
2) Bucky Irving | TB (vs. WAS)
3) Derrick Henry | BAL (vs. PIT)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. MIN)
5) Josh Jacobs | GB (at PHI)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. LAC)
7) Aaron Jones | MIN (at LAR)
8) J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at HOU)
9) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at TB)
10) Jaylen Warren | PIT (at BAL)
11) Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (at BUF)
12) Najee Harris | PIT (at BAL)
13) Cam Akers | MIN (at LAR)
14) Justice Hill | BAL (vs. PIT)
15) Javonte Williams | DEN (at BUF)
16) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at TB)
17) Gus Edwards | LAC (at HOU)
18) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. GB)
19) Emanuel Wilson | GB (at PHI)
20) Rachaad White | TB (vs. WAS)
21) James Cook | BUF (vs. DEN)
22) Ray Davis | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Audric Estimé | DEN (at BUF)
24) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. DEN)
25) Kimani Vidal | LAC (at HOU)
26) Dameon Pierce | HOU (vs. LAC)
27) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (vs. LAC)
28) Cordarrelle Patterson | PIT (at BAL)
29) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at TB)
30) Chris Brooks | GB (at PHI)
31) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. GB)
32) Sean Tucker | TB (vs. WAS)
33) Hassan Haskins | LAC (at HOU)
34) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (vs. MIN)
35) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (vs. PIT)
36) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at TB)
37) C.J. Ham | MIN (at LAR)
38) Michael Burton | DEN (at BUF)
39) Rasheen Ali | BAL (vs. PIT)
40) Patrick Ricard | BAL (vs. PIT)
41) Ty Chandler | MIN (at LAR)
42) Tyrion Davis-Price | PHI (vs. GB)
43) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. DEN)
44) Tyler Badie | DEN (at BUF)
45) Ellis Merriweather | GB (at PHI)
46) Michael Wiley | WAS (at TB)
47) Cody Schrader | LAR (vs. MIN)
48) Blake Watson | DEN (at BUF)
49) J.J. Taylor | HOU (vs. LAC)
50) Aaron Shampklin | PIT (at BAL)
51) Jaret Patterson | LAC (at HOU)
52) Khari Blasingame | CHI ()
53) Jonathan Ward | PIT (at BAL)
54) Frank Gore Jr. | BUF (vs. DEN)
Steelers at Ravens Trends and Insights
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The 2011 Giants are the only team since 2000 to win a Super Bowl in a season that included a four-game losing streak (the Steelers have lost four straight, totaling just 57 points across those games).
QB: Russell Wilson’s pressure stats are a major concern as we get into the postseason.
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)
Offense: Saturday’s loss to the Bengals was Pittsburgh’s first this season when not turning the ball over (they won the first four such instances, out-scoring opponents 100-44 in those games).
Defense: The Steelers are 1-5 this season when allowing opponents to pick up at least 37% of their third downs this season (lone win: Week 13 at Bengals).
Fantasy: The Najee Harris train has run out of gas, partly due to this offense:
- Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation, 4.0 red zone touches per game
- Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations, 2.0 red zone touches per game
Betting: Mike Tomlin doesn’t just excel at winning games on the field – his Steelers have posted a winning ATS record in 10 of the past 12 seasons (2024: 11-6, 64.7%).
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The UConn Huskies won a national championship in 2023. Why does that matter? They also won in 1999 and 2011, the season prior to the Ravens winning their most recent Super Bowls.
QB: In the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Lamar Jackson has been a different QB:
- 2023-24: 66.9% complete, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD, 1.2% INT
- Career prior: 63.7% complete, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1%, 2.3% INT
Offense: The Ravens turned the ball over at least once in six of their first seven games – they’ve done it in just three of 10 games since.
Defense: In Weeks 11-18, Baltimore allowed 1.38 points per drive (Weeks 1-10: 2.30)
Fantasy: Since Week 12, Derrick Henry has been even more dangerous than normal when it comes to chunk gains.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
Betting: No team cashed over tickets more often than the Ravens during the regular season (13-4), quite the change for a franchise that had more unders than overs in each of the four seasons prior.