As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Derrick Henry.
Derrick Henry’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
2022 was the first time I ever rostered Henry in a fantasy league. I must say, it was a blast. He’s just a lot of fun to root for.
It’s wild to think that it took Henry 2.5 years before he became the King. But once he arrived, he’s been like the modern-day version of Marshawn Lynch.
Henry finished as a top-four RB every year since 2019. The only year he failed to get there was 2021 because he only played eight games. Yet, he was the overall RB1 at the time he went down.
MORE: Top Running Back Dynasty Rankings
On the surface, Henry bounced back in 2022. He played 16 games, finishing as the overall RB4. However, he only averaged 18.9 ppg. Most years, that wouldn’t be enough for a top-four finish.
After averaging over 5.0 yards per carry between 2018 and 2020, Henry has now been at 4.3/4.4 the past two seasons. His evaded tackles per touch and yards created per touch are both down considerably from his peak. There’s no denying that Henry is declining.
The only real improvement Henry made last season was as a receiver. He was always a capable pass catcher, but his team just never threw him the ball. This time, they did, and Henry’s 10.3% target share became a career high, which also led to career highs in receptions (33) and receiving yards (398).
While receiving work could keep Henry afloat a little longer, he’s now 29 years old and in the final year of his contract. There’s a good chance 2023 is the last year Henry is viewed as an elite running back. It’s entirely possible we only see 15-17 ppg from Henry this year.
Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Ranking
When looking for outlier running backs that can put up RB1 numbers into their early 30s, historically, they’ve been the elite of the elite. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Priest Holmes, and Corey Dillon, to name a few. Henry certainly qualifies. If anyone can hang on a bit longer than he should, it’s Henry.
There’s not much you can do if you have Henry. Of course, if you’re not contending, try and trade him. But the market for 29-year-old running backs isn’t strong. It’s why we have Henry, a top-four RB each of the past four seasons, all the way down at RB16 (No. 49 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. The value you get in return likely won’t be what Henry is worth, at least for 2023.
I don’t think 2023 is the year Henry falls off a cliff. But I don’t want to be holding the bag if it is. Now is the time to cash out on Henry if you can find a deal that’s worth it.
If you think Henry has at least two years left, though, he could be a sneaky good value in dynasty startup drafts.