Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry is clearly past his prime, but he has yet to completely fall off a cliff. Can the move to an improved offense allow Henry to return to being an RB1 in fantasy football? Or is Henry too expensive to select in Best Ball drafts?
Derrick Henry’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
They don’t make running backs like Henry anymore. When you think about every starting running back in the NFL, Henry stands out as different. Dare I say, an outlier (that’s what the writers call foreshadowing)?
Henry is 30 years old. The list of elite running backs, or even fantasy-relevant running backs, over the age of 30 in the past decade is minuscule. Unless someone gives Latavius Murray a job this year, Henry and Raheem Mostert will be the only active running backs over 30. By all accounts, we should be fading Henry in fantasy. But … he’s Derrick Henry.
The Ravens’ signing of Henry feels very much like the team going back to a well that proved mighty fruitful five years ago. In 2018, Mark Ingram was coming off four consecutive RB1 finishes. But in that season, his usage declined with the emergence of a young Alvin Kamara. He averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-points-per-game drop from the previous year.
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Looking to be in decline, the Saints parted ways with Ingram. At 30 years old, he latched on to the Ravens. All Ingram did was average 15.9 fantasy points per game, finishing inside the top 12 running backs.
Here we are again five years later. Henry had been a top-five running back every year from 2019-2022, averaging no fewer than 18.9 fantasy points per game. Then, in 2023, he appeared to fall off, averaging just 14.5 fantasy points per game. That’s a 4.4-point decrease from the previous year. The Titans opted to move on, and at 30, Henry latched on with the Ravens. Sound familiar?
The stigma against old running backs is warranted. It’s a punishing position. There’s a reason most running backs only perform at their peak for 4-5 years. There’s also something to be said about the select few running backs who can make it to 30.
I am buying the Ingram-Henry parallel, with the added bonus of Henry being a much more talented player. His ceiling is significantly higher than Ingram’s ever was.
Should You Draft Henry in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Henry missed half of the 2021 season with a broken foot. Other than that, he hasn’t missed a game due to injury since his rookie year. We should never assume health for any running back, especially one over 30, but Henry did not show any durability issues last season.
Last season, Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns in this offense. Think about how much better Henry is than Edwards. He is apt to see even more goal-line carries than Edwards’ 15. Well … maybe not … because Henry should be more efficient at converting them.
The Ravens have made it a point not to put Lamar Jackson at unnecessary risk. That will lead to Henry having many drives where he gets multiple chances inside the five-yard line.
The only negative to Henry’s game is he doesn’t catch passes, but that’s always been the case. Henry has been just fine relying on yards and touchdowns, and now he’s playing on the best offense of his career.
There’s always a chance Henry completely falls off a cliff. That’s a risk with any running back above the age of 27, and especially one with 2,185 career touches. Henry’s yards per carry has decreased each of the past three seasons. But is that due to declining ability? Or have his offenses gotten progressively worse?
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy RB Rankings 2024
As far as explosiveness, 5.7% of Henry’s carries went for 15+ yards last season. That was the eighth-most in the league. Henry is not as good now as he was 3-4 years ago. But is he cooked? Absolutely not.
Henry does fall right smack in the middle of the RB dead zone. However, I think that has more to do with Best Ball inflating the values of wide receivers. If you start out your draft double-tapping WR, Henry is a pretty appealing option in the third or fourth round.
