The production from the running back can be one of the most volatile positions in all of fantasy football year over year. This makes identifying potential breakout performers at a draft day discount critical to succeeding in your fantasy league.
Here are five of my must-have RBs entering the 2024 NFL season.
Top RBs To Draft in Fantasy Football in 2024
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
I must be missing something here. Alvin Kamara’s ADP currently sits at No. 42 overall in the fourth round as the RB16 off the board in full-PPR formats.
Yet, Kamara was the RB3 overall on a points-per-game basis at 17.9, which trailed just Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams in 2023. That doesn’t make sense.
Additionally, the New Orleans Saints didn’t exactly add any significant competition to this backfield — which means players like Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams (who both finished with a lower yards-per-carry mark than Kamara last year) will be his top competition for touches in 2024.
Did Kamara’s per-touch efficiency drop considerably last season? Yes, he and Ezekiel Elliott were the only running backs in the league to see 180+ carries and not register a single 20+ yard rushing play.
Kamara’s 3.8 yards per carry ranked 45th among running backs and was the second-lowest mark of his career. Additionally, his yards per touch dropped to 4.5, which ranked 37th at the position and was a career low in that department.
Yet, the volume on the ground and, more importantly, in the passing game should still both be there in 2024. Kamara ranked second behind Breece Hall with 75 receptions on 86 targets. This becomes even more impressive when you recall his three-game suspension entering last season.
Kamara feels more like a volume play than an efficiency play heading into the 2024 season. Still, if the slippery veteran can maintain his elite usage in the passing game while seeing a bump in rushing efficiency behind an improved offensive line, then Kamara can still be a reliable fantasy option with plenty of top-10 upside at the position this year.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
When trying to identify symptoms of a potential breakout fantasy running back, one could say Jaylen Warren should be officially diagnosed as a potential league-winning asset entering the 2024 NFL season.
When you take a closer look at the production from the Steelers backfield last year, it was painfully clear who the more efficient option was.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Running Back Stats
- Najee Harris: 284 total touches, 1,205 total yards, 8 TDs (RB23)
- Jaylen Warren: 210 total touches, 1,154 total yards, 4 TDs (RB22)
You don’t have to be a math major to figure out why Harris’ role is so problematic to Warren’s fantasy value. Warren’s 61 receptions to Harris’ 29 is a huge discrepancy in full-PPR formats, which gives Warren a higher weekly floor while making Harris a bit more touchdown-dependent.
New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to run the ball…a lot. Even if Harris is the leading ball carrier, I still expect Warren to be the most explosive and versatile option in this backfield.
Warren’s 5.5 yards per touch blew Harris’ 4.2 mark out of the water by a wide margin as well, making him the most efficient back with the more valuable fantasy role in full-PPR formats.
For those of you concerned about a committee backfield in Smith’s offensive scheme being able to produce a potential breakout option, I simply ask you to turn your attention to the Atlanta Falcons 2021 backfield with Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson as a sample point.
Atlanta Falcons 2021 Running Back Production
- Mike Davis: 182 touches (44 receptions) for 762 yards and 4 TDs (RB36 overall)
- Cordarrelle Patterson: 205 touches (52 receptions) for 1,166 yards and 11 TDs (RB9 overall)
Warren should fit nicely into the Patterson-type role with similar efficiency, but a slightly lower touchdown ceiling because of Harris. Yet, his top-shelf pass-catching ability and per-touch effectiveness could be a recipe for a breakout player in this run-heavy scheme with a potentially improved offensive line to run behind and improved quarterback play.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Who exactly is on this Kansas City Chiefs roster that is going to get Isiah Pacheco off the football field regularly in 2024?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw 135 fewer carries than Pacheco last year. Carson Steele has a nice power element to his game, but doesn’t offer the explosiveness or pass-catching upside of Pacheco. Deneric Prince has some intriguing physical tools and route-running chops but hasn’t done enough to suggest he is even a lock for the 53-man roster.
This leaves Pacheco as the unquestioned leading back in a high-powered offense in 2024.
After you get through the first two rounds with players like Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor — Pacheco has a real case to be the RB8 overall entering this upcoming season.
The best sign of fantasy success was Pacheco’s usage in the red zone in 2023. His 42 carries inside the opponent’s 20-yard line was tied for the eighth-highest mark in the league.
Kansas City’s offense may have finished 14th in scoring with 22.2 points per game last year, but the Chiefs finished seventh in the league with 61 trips to the red zone. If Pacheco continues to dominate the workload and the Chiefs manage to make a return to the top-five scoring offenses — where they finished in 2021 and 2022 — then his TD ceiling certainly feels like it could be in the double digits.
One could try to nitpick Pacheco’s nine carries for just three yards inside the 5-yard line as a concern about his potential effectiveness in a short-yardage role, but he still managed to score five touchdowns on those nine carries. Ultimately, he should have those opportunities again in a high-powered offense with a lack of significant competition in this backfield.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos
Second-year running backs that showed they can be highly efficient ball carriers during their rookie campaigns should be on your radar late in fantasy drafts.
On the surface, most are going to assume that Javonte Williams will lead Denver’s backfield again in 2024. Yet, jumping to that conclusion means you either expect Williams to be far more efficient than he was last year or the coaching staff that didn’t draft him is willing to overlook his lack of production on a per-touch basis for a second straight year.
Williams averaged 3.6 yards per carry in 2023, which is a far cry from Jaleel McLaughlin’s mark of 5.4 in his rookie year. Do these numbers require some context? Sure, but it doesn’t change the fact that the undrafted newcomer was the far more efficient and explosive ball carrier last year.
On the subject of explosive plays, McLaughlin had two more runs of 20+ yards than Williams on 141 fewer carries last year.
Unfortunately, Williams is likely not McLaughlin’s only competition for touches in this backfield. Samaje Perine caught 50 passes (19 more than McLaughlin) in 2023, and the Broncos selected the bruising running back from Notre Dame, Audric Estimé, on Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Do these other backs and the lack of optimism surrounding the Broncos’ offense make a full-blown McLaughlin breakout season in 2024 a bit murkier? Sure, but the price tag for a highly efficient player in an undetermined backfield is exactly what has me so intrigued about his upside entering his second NFL season.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
The New York Giants’ offense isn’t one fantasy managers are rushing to invest in come draft day. The removal of Saquon Barkley, however, does make New York’s backfield one where a potential newcomer could emerge to carve out a significant role.
Devin Singletary’s signing this offseason does give him the inside track to the leading role, given his familiarity with Brian Daboll’s offensive scheme during their days together with the Buffalo Bills. Yet, rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s explosive athleticism, exceptional creativity as a ball carrier, and pass-catching upside have me very intrigued at the end of the fantasy drafts.
FREE: Subscribe to PFN’s NFL Newsletter
For those unfamiliar with Tracy’s college career path, he’s a converted wide receiver who made the switch heading into his final season at Purdue. This change had excellent results, with Tracy becoming one of the most elusive backs in the country with his short-area quickness, top-shelf lateral agility, and improved play strength after adding more than 10 pounds of muscle entering the last year of his college career.
Singletary is a quality running back, but he lacks the top-end speed to provide explosive plays in the running game at the same rate Tracy flashed during his limited time as an RB.
Additionally, Singletary’s career-high 216 carries in 2023 was coupled with a career-low 4.16 yards per carry. If Tracy can provide a spark to the Giants’ offense early in the season in a complementary role, it’s not that farfetched to suggest his role could expand exponentially throughout the season.