As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. Well, just like every year, we at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Derek Carr’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
We’ll never know if a healthy Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller could have helped propel the 2022 Raiders to the playoffs. They missed a combined 15 games, forcing Carr to direct almost all of his downfield attention onto Davante Adams and 29-year-old journeyman Mack Hollins.
Five of the Raiders’ losses were by three points or less. Four others were by 4-7 points. A 9-8 record and a postseason appearance were doable. That might have been enough to keep Carr in Vegas alongside Adams, Josh Jacobs, Renfrow, and newcomer Jakobi Meyers.
Instead, with Vegas prepared to move on this offseason, the Saints signed Carr to a four-year contract. Immediately, their odds of winning Super Bowl 58 popped from +5000 to +4000. Warranted? Perhaps. Carr certainly marks an upgrade over Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. And in a relatively weak NFC South, his addition comes at an ideal time.
However, his landing spot might not give him the fantasy boost some managers hope for. For starters, Carr is coming off arguably his worst campaign since his rookie year, including his lowest completion percentage since 2014 and his worst interception rate.
While Josh Jacobs helped power last year’s offense, Carr is moving to a less predictable environment where the aging Alvin Kamara will carry the load when he gets back from a suspension.
Anything Michael Thomas can produce at this stage will be gravy. Rashid Shaheed was a pleasant surprise last season but probably can’t be expected to dramatically elevate his quarterback.
And the addition of Jamaal Williams suggests the Saints will look to the veteran near the end zone. Thirteen of his 17 TDs in 2022 came from the 1- or 2-yard line.
That could severely cap Carr’s ceiling in an offense with only one exceptional, reliable receiver (Chris Olave).
Also, pay attention to the Saints’ defense, which should be significantly better than the Raiders’ unit. Carr operates better as a game manager than as a come-from-behind specialist. The Raiders have yielded the 13th-most points or worse in each of Carr’s nine NFL campaigns. He’s been a middling fantasy option despite throwing more than most starting QBs in the last two seasons.
The Saints, meanwhile, have leaned a lot more on their defense. As a result, they’ve been among the lowest-volume passing teams in the league for several years.
Additionally, Carr averaged the eighth-highest time to throw last season. Now he’s shifting to a team on which Dalton had the sixth-lowest amount of time to throw. How will Carr adjust? And/or will the team adjust Carr’s approach to minimize risk-taking?
It all speaks to Carr’s historically low ceiling, which might be even lower in New Orleans. He’s a Band-Aid for the next two or three years, with the franchise hoping they have enough firepower on both sides of the ball to return to the playoffs. But it’s hard to envision him suddenly becoming a top-10 QB.
Should You Draft Derek Carr This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Carr with a QB19 ADP. Our PFN Consensus Rankings list him at QB19, too. Those are entirely reasonable projections for a solid-floor, low-ceiling quarterback.
The big question for fantasy managers is whether 14-17 points per game are worth it. In two-QB or Superflex leagues, absolutely. Carr could be a solid get at his ADP if things break right.
But in one-QB leagues, he’s probably better off as bench fodder in the short term. Kyler Murray is going a bit later in drafts.
If you can afford to stash Murray, at least he can bring higher upsides. Or you might pair the undraftable (in one-QB leagues, based on ADP) Trey Lance with Brock Purdy, either of whom could deliver higher per-game fantasy production.
The point is, Carr would need to enjoy his best campaign since 2016 to blow his ADP out of the water. Kamara would need to return to an elite level off of the suspension, while delivering massive volume in the passing game. Thomas would need to show some semblance of his former greatness across 12+ games.
There are a lot more paths to Carr finishing outside the top 18 than inside. While his ADP seems appropriate, his lack of a realistic top-10 ceiling puts him behind the kinds of boom/bust QBs worth snagging that late in the draft.