Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr was a quality backup in fantasy football last year. Now, with star wide receiver Davante Adams and head coach Josh McDaniels on the Raiders, Carr is hoping to explode in 2022. What is Carr’s fantasy outlook for 2022, and should fantasy managers target him at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Derek Carr’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Since joining the NFL in 2014, few quarterbacks have been as consistently solid as Carr. Since his second year in the league in 2015, Carr has become an increasingly efficient passer as he steadily increases his average depth of target. Though he earned Pro Bowl honors in three of his first four seasons and none since, Carr has been a better QB over the last four years compared to his first four.
The Raiders have been through several coaching staffs since Carr was drafted, and he’s responded well. His 2021 season was impressive as he racked up a 68.4% completion rate with 4,804 yards. He’s no longer the dink-and-dunk quarterback we saw earlier in his career.
Carr couldn’t prove to be more than a QB2 in fantasy football last year, though. Despite boasting the fifth-most years in the league, Carr produced only 23 touchdowns with 14 interceptions, ranking 17th in fantasy points per game.
This has largely been Carr’s fantasy career. He’s never been in a high-volume passing attack, usually falling about 100 attempts short of the NFL’s season leader in every season he’s played. The lack of volume and surrounding star talent has limited his upside. However, 2022 can be different for multiple reasons.
A loaded Raiders offense
The Raiders shelled out $141 million, plus a first- and second-round pick to land Adams, arguably the best receiver in the NFL. They also hired Josh McDaniels to control an offense that also has Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.
The Raiders’ offense is loaded with talent at playmaking positions. Their offensive line is questionable entering the year, but McDaniels has experience elevating suspect individual talent in the trenches. For all of his personality quirks and questionable background as a coach, McDaniels is a phenomenal play-caller and smart play designer.
That doesn’t mean Carr’s volume will increase significantly, though. Over his last four seasons in New England, McDaniels’ offense threw the ball an average of 52.5% of plays. He prioritized balance even with Tom Brady. Expect that to continue in Vegas since he has a deep stable of backs led by Josh Jacobs.
The only area of potential fantasy growth for Carr is touchdowns. Finishing 13th in touchdowns as a non-rushing QB is incredibly limiting. Even with a balanced offense, the Raiders have too many weapons to believe Carr will throw that few again this season.
Carr has some upside to improve in fantasy, but it’s capped. Dual-threat quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Trey Lance can leap over Carr despite being less successful passers. At best, Carr will be a very low-end QB1.
How the Raiders’ depth chart impacts Derek Carr’s fantasy projection for this season
There are few offenses as exciting as what the Raiders will be trotting out in 2022. Getting a full 17 games of Renfrow starting will be a boost, and we’re hoping Waller won’t miss six games as he did last season. The trio of Adams, Waller, and Renfrow is close to unguardable.
Carr has the star power around him to flourish. His career-high of 32 touchdowns is a good target for him to hit in 2022. Caesars Sportsbook has his total line of touchdowns at 29.5, and that feels spot on considering the talent of the offense and the track record of Carr and McDaniels.
A touchdown regression would help Carr as well. He was .7% below his career TD rate of 4.3% of total passes last year. Had he met his average, Carr would have had 27 touchdowns. The pathway up is not too difficult for him to reach.
Las Vegas’ run game may cap Carr’s fantasy ceiling
The biggest concern fantasy managers should have about Carr in 2022 is the threat of the running game. The AFC West is a terrific division that will produce close games all year long. Carr may benefit from some offensive shootouts, but the defensive calibers he’ll see from the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos negates some of that optimism.
Instead of thinking the Raiders will chuck it around the field all season, McDaniels will look to shorten games and utilize his deep backfield. It’s not an accident the Raiders signed veteran Brandon Bolden, drafted Zamir White in Round 4 and Brittain Brown in Round 7, and still kept veteran Kenyan Drake as a backup. McDaniels wants options.
The good news is most of these backs are quality pass catchers. Carr will have check-down options that can create easy yards and win 1-on-1 against linebackers. This will help offset the lack of a clear No. 2 boundary receiver across from Adams.
I’m a big fan of the Raiders’ offense for 2022. Carr has been a solid backup quarterback in fantasy for much of his career. He has upside to get better as well, and I think he’ll elevate himself to a starting-caliber fantasy option this season.
However, the ceiling is not particularly high. Had Vegas hired Byron Leftwich or another pass-happy play-caller we might be talking about a different upside. By taking Carr, be realistic that he may not end up higher than QB8 and more likely to finish 10th.
Carr’s ADP for 2022
Carr has an intriguing ADP in 2022 as roughly the 110th player off the board at QB14. He is very much in the area that we transition from the “sure-things” at QB to the less certain options, whether that be in terms of floor or ceiling. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Carr is the QB15 at 131 overall. The fact he is ranked roughly 20 selections below his ADP is largely due to our philosophy here at PFN of waiting a little more at the position than we see in many drafts.
The intriguing part when it comes to Carr is whether you think that ceiling can improve. He has never finished above the QB10, and that was back in 2016. In the last five years, his best finish is the QB13 in 2020. The Raiders added Davante Adams this offseason, but will Josh McDaniels open the offense up and let Carr air it out?
If we look back to McDaniels’ time with Brady, we can see that the ceiling was certainly there. The future Hall of Fame QB had a number of top-five finishes at QB during their time together. Now, Brady is a better QB than Carr, but can the Raiders’ QB just up that ceiling? We know the floor is there, and in Superflex, that is valuable as a QB2, but is the ceiling high enough to make him a 1QB contender?
Taking Carr to partner with a QB like Lance is the way you should potentially approach him in 1QB leagues. Having that safety to go with the maverick upside is wise. However, relying on Carr to be your QB1 is extremely risky because you could be limiting your weekly upside. He is a solid option, but not one that will excite you when you are setting lineups on a weekly basis unless he and Adams can really click early on.