One of the biggest risers in the pre-draft process, Denzel Mims struggled with injuries and finding his footing in the NFL as a rookie. With the organization looking to reestablish its identity under a new regime, can Mims find success in his sophomore season and provide value at his ADP, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest he could get lost in a somewhat crowded receiver room?
Denzel Mims’ fantasy outlook for 2021
For those who played fantasy football last season, especially dynasty, you are already well aware of the meteoric rise Mims experienced in the pre-draft process. He not only dominated down in Mobile at the Senior Bowl but was a standout performer at the NFL Combine. Mims, at 6’3″ and 207 pounds, ran a blistering 4.38 40-yard dash and then jumped out of Lucas Oil with a 38.5-inch vertical and 131-inch broad jump.
Like many of us, the New York Jets became enamored with Mims’ explosive and contested-catch ability. Looking for a spark on offense, the Jets selected the Baylor product in the second round with the No. 59 selection.
Unfortunately, all hopes for a breakout rookie season were quickly dashed. Mims suffered a hamstring injury that cost him the first six weeks. Any other remnants of excitement were taken out to pasture by the struggles of New York’s offense.
Playing on 82% of the snaps, Mims saw just 45 targets, recording 23 receptions for 357 yards. He ended the season as the WR103, and from Week 7 and on was the WR83, averaging just 6.7 points per game. Even with his size, Mims saw just 2 red-zone targets.
Although he does have second-round stature, that doesn’t mean anything now with the team bringing in a whole new coaching staff who will reevaluate the entire roster. There is also a concern for how much volume Mims will even see this season. They brought in a veteran in Corey Davis, who is nearly identical in size on a lucrative contract. Then, they signed Keelan Cole and drafted Elijah Moore in the second round.
Unless Mims can impress the staff, he could quickly end up on the backburner in 2021 and lose any potential fantasy upside.
Fantasy projection
Deciphering a fantasy outlook for anyone on the Jets is difficult, as it is a brand new offense with a rookie head coach.
I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker. The most important addition came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. Let that one sink in a bit.
Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd).
When trying to make projections for Mims, the problem is deciding if he will be a starter. According to reports coming out of training camp, Mims has been working with the second-team offense. We knew he was losing the primary perimeter job to Davis. Yet, Mims appears to be in an even more precarious position than previously imagined.
With a rookie QB, every rep is critical to building rapport. Every day, Mims is losing the chance to build that chemistry with Zach Wilson. Because of this news and the crowded room in general, I have difficulty projecting a significant role for Mims in 2021.
While early, projections have Mims for around 40 targets with 25 receptions, close to 400 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Denzel Mims’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Mims currently has an ADP of 248.1 in PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Mims has a 270.9 ADP.
Should you draft Mims in 2021 for fantasy?
When you are at the end of your fantasy draft, you start throwing darts on upside players who have the athletic profile and could have a path to playing time. Those are even better when the position group itself is surrounded by ambiguity with no clear depth chart at the time of the draft. That description fits Mims’ outlook in 2021.
There is a chance he can work his way into the third option on the Jets’ WR depth chart. He could be a big-play type receiver and a red-zone target alongside Davis and Moore. He is a stash and hope. But Mims is also a player who could quickly be a waiver casualty in the first few weeks. You should have no issue cutting him for a player who starts to break out.
As a final draft pick, Mims carries little risk. But he is a long shot to end up in your starting roster without some injuries ahead of him on the Jets’ depth chart.