The Denver Broncos suffered a devastating loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week, with signs pointing to Patrick Surtain II being unable to play in Thursday’s game. All the momentum from rattling off three straight wins is gone, and Denver now ranks third in the AFC West.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, rolled out Spencer Rattler for his rookie debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The team’s performance was bizarre and uninspiring. They gave up 51 points, forcing three turnovers but also having three of their own. This was on top of a very streaky game, where the Bucs scored 17 straight, followed by the Saints scoring 20 straight, only for Tampa Bay to finish it off with 27 unanswered points.
Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Saints -1 - Moneyline
Saints (-118); Broncos (-102) - Over/Under
37.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Broncos vs. Saints Preview and Prediction
Bo Nix ranks fifth in the NFL in the proportion of his passes that are at or behind the line of scrimmage. This would suggest the Broncos want to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers and allow them to make plays.
Denver ranks 27th in yards after catch per game, per TruMedia. Next Gen Stats takes it one step further by calculating yards after catch over expected, using tracking data that takes into account contextual factors. In this stat, the Broncos have four pass catchers — with an average xYAC of 31st in the league — who have enough targets to qualify.
Debate the first play on this reel if you want, but the rest of this I don't think is even debatable.
The Broncos should have scored on all but one drive from the end of the 2nd quarter on to the end of the game and problems from non-Bo Nix players prevented it. pic.twitter.com/HzlNJeRFfN
— Sayre Bedinger (@SayreBedinger) October 14, 2024
Overall, Denver’s offense is just not performing well. They rank 29th IN expected points added (EPA) and will face a Saints defense that ranks 13th in pass EPA and 26th in rush EPA.
While the Broncos don’t have the best passing game, the run game has potential. They rank 18th in yards per rush attempt, 12th in runs of 10+ yards, and 12th in rushing success rate. New Orleans is tied for third-worst in rushes of 20+ yards given up and is right around middle of the pack for rushes of 10+ yards allowed.
The Saints’ offense ranks 14th in EPA, showcasing consistency in the run game (10th in rushing success rate) and explosiveness in the passing game (tied for third in passes of 50+ yards).
Eckel rate is a good metric that encapsulates both of these things. Eckel rate is how often an offense generates a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40-yard line on any given drive. The Saints rank sixth in this metric.
Unfortunately, there is no telling how this will continue with Rattler at the helm instead of Derek Carr. In Rattler’s first start, he had a lower average depth of target (8.2 vs. 9.4) than Carr and a much longer time to throw (3.01 vs. 2.57).
Against Tampa Bay’s defense, Rattler led New Orleans’ offense to a success rate of 39% (22nd of 26) and an EPA per play of -0.372 (25th of 26).
The Bucs rank 12th in pressure generated and fourth in blitz rate. The Broncos rank fourth and first in these categories, respectively.
The Saints ranked 23rd of 26 teams (written before Bills/Jets) in EPA under pressure and last in EPA when blitzed. I expect Denver’s defense to have a significant advantage over New Orleans’ offense under Rattler. With Chris Olave likely to miss the game — and potentially, Rashid Shaheed — this should take away some of the blow from Surtain being out.
The Broncos clearly have some things to figure out offensively, but the Saints, without their quarterback, do not seem likely to play well against such an aggressive defense.
I like the Broncos’ moneyline (-102) as a result.
New Orleans has the fourth-highest pass-funnel defense in the league, meaning they do a great job of forcing teams to pass against them, playing into their strength. Part of this is due to their ability to dictate games.
So far this season, the Saints have operated from a neutral or positive game script in 72.7% of their plays. In the one-game sample size (take this with a grain of salt), New Orleans only played 12.9% of its games in a positive game script and 41.9% in a neutral game script (54.8% total).
With such an aggressive defense to force the Saints into negative game-script situations, I can see a world where the Broncos dominate in this matchup.
Alternate Pick: Broncos -6.5 (+228)
