The Denver Broncos travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs for a Thursday Night Football matchup that, on the surface, may not be the most competitive game in the world. However, as we saw last Thursday, anything is possible in a short week. But this contest shouldn’t be all that competitive, and we’ll get to exactly why that’s the case momentarily.
But first, a public service announcement.
NFL fans are already sick and tired of the hoopla Taylor Swift has brought to the product. But one must understand that the NFL — more than anything — is a money-printing factory. And whether you like it or not, she is the biggest music star in the world. She alone has more fans than the NFL.
And because parasocial relationships are so prevalent, those fans would storm the beaches of Normandy for her. Her impact on the NFL product goes far beyond the broadcast showing more of her on the television screen than the game.
Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.
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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the PFN game selectors were unanimous for Thursday Night Football in Week 6.
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Bearman: Chiefs
- Miller: Chiefs
- Morrison: Chiefs
- Robinson: Chiefs
But let’s dive into why. Even when looking past the obvious on-paper mismatches, this contest appears very one-sided.
Russell Wilson, the Chiefs, and Sacks
We’re not breaking news in reporting that Russell Wilson takes too many sacks. Since the beginning of 2022, Wilson has been sacked 70 times, according to Inside Edge. Conversely, the Chiefs have the third-most sacks in the league during that same period (68).
Wilson is currently pressured at the second-highest rate in the league, but his sack rate sits at 7.9%, good for only 10th in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions. In short, Mr. Unlimited has been better at avoiding sacks so far in 2023. He’s obviously more mobile than a season ago and clearly more confident in Sean Payton’s offense.
Is there any good news for Wilson, Payton, and Broncos fans?
Yes, there is. So far in 2023, the Chiefs’ pass rush has been lackluster. They’re 24th in pressure rate and only 22nd in sack rate. Only Chris Jones and George Karlaftis have been consistently winning, with Leo Chenal, an off-ball linebacker, being their third-best rusher in blitzing situations.
The Broncos’ offensive line and Wilson must find success here because their offense needs to push the ball downfield, where he remains one of the best in the game.
Denver Broncos Downfield Passing
Wilson is a great downfield passer. While the rest of Denver’s passing attack has also improved this year, they’ve done a much better job of giving Wilson chances to show off that outstanding trait.
His 19 attempts of 20+ air yards rank ninth through five games. Despite having the ninth-most attempts, he is first in intended air yards on downfield attempts. His 33.7-yard average is the farthest in the league.
MORE: Broncos vs. Chiefs Weather Report
Wilson’s also third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, eighth in EPA, and 11th in positive EPA rate.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 10th in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, sixth in EPA per play, and 11th in positive EPA rate.
So, the Chiefs are a top-third NFL team defending downfield passes, and the Broncos have been a top-third team passing downfield. Can Denver find the looks they want and have time to operate against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defense?
Broncos Defense Is Historically Bad
Different metrics will look and value things a bit differently. But so far, through five games, no team has produced a worse defensive DVOA… ever.
DVOA metrics go back to 1981. And even if we look elsewhere, this unit has been historically bad.
It can be challenging to accurately measure pressure rates in football. According to Pro Football Reference, the Broncos have recorded only 26 pressures and have a pressure rate of 14.8%, which is the lowest in the league.
SIS, on the other hand, reports a pressure rate of 30.1%, which ranks 27th in the league. Their 35% pass rush win rate ranks 29th. It’s important to note that determining pressures and win rates is a subjective process.
But even through that lens, Denver can’t get pressure. And they can’t cover, either.
Teams have a 53.7% success rate throwing against the Broncos and a 0.328 dropback EPA. Both are the worst marks in the league, and it won’t take you long to see where they rank against the run.
Only the Panthers hold a worse rushing EPA defensively. Denver is also 21st in success rate when defending the run.
Kansas City Chiefs Look Different in 2023
The Chiefs are seventh in EPA, fourth in success rate, fifth in dropback EPA, third in dropback success rate, 29th in rushing EPA, and 17th in rushing success rate… on defense.
This is, analytically speaking, the most well-rounded start to a Chiefs season since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. Yet, nobody really feels like this team is as dominant because the offense isn’t clearly above the rest of the league like usual.
They’re only fourth in offensive EPA and 12th in success rate. Kansas City’s QB is playing on a bum ankle, and so is their Hall of Fame TE. The Chiefs don’t have a single legitimate WR1, and it’s very debatable whether they have a legitimate WR2.
Nevertheless, they’re still a top-five unit through five weeks. But Kansas City’s defense is what has kept them dominant.
The Taylor Swift Effect
Swift has 270 million people following her on Instagram. That is 4.3x more followers than the NFL has — on Instagram and X (formerly Twitter) COMBINED.
She is the biggest Pop star in a world that has never been more online. The total gross of her “Eras Tour” was over $1 billion, and her take-home was $300 million. Deshaun Watson won’t make that much in his five years with the Browns.
MORE: Chiefs TE Seeing Massive Social Media Spike Thanks to Taylor Swift
Travis Kelce’s jersey sales saw a 400% increase, according to Fanatics. He’s currently fifth in the league in sales. New Heights went from being the top-ranked sports podcast to the top-ranked podcast in the world on Apple, independent of genre.
The Chiefs’ Sunday Night Football game against the New York Jets had the second-highest ratings of the season behind the opening kickoff against the Detroit Lions, with 27 million people tuning in to see the game, Swift, and her entourage of famous friends.
According to Forbes, “ratings among female teens (age 12-to-17) grew by 53%, the audience among women age 18-to-24 increased 24% while women age 35+ rose 34%.”