The Buffalo Bills once again dominated the AFC East, extending their streak to five straight years. With Josh Allen as the starter, the Bills have gone over their preseason win total every single season, in spite of Vegas upping the ante to account for their skill level.
The Denver Broncos are one of two teams to make the playoffs this season with a rookie quarterback. Overall, rookie starting QBs are 12-15 in their playoff debuts. Sean Payton has done a great job of deploying a quarterback-friendly scheme to help Bo Nix get assimilated into the NFL.
With one of the top offensive lines and defenses, Nix has a chance to make some noise in the playoffs. He could possibly extend the streak of rookie QB playoff wins that started with Brock Purdy in 2022 and continued with C.J. Stroud last season.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bills -8.5 - Moneyline
Bills (-440); Broncos (+330) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
1:00 p.m ET - Location
Highmark Stadium
Broncos vs. Bills Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Broncos rank 16th in offensive EPA (expected points added), 18th in success rate, ninth in explosive passing rate, and 14th in explosive rushing rate. For all intents and purposes, Nix has led this offense to about a league-average output. The one thing that is important to note, however, is that they rank second in my EPA improvement index, indicating that their best play has been recent.
Thanks to PFN trends and insights, I have another way of showing the Broncos’ clear improvement on offense. They are averaging 32.6 points per game since Week 11, the third-highest mark in the league. Not only have they gotten better play out of Nix, but Marvin Mims Jr. has been a key part of this offense as well.
Mims ranks fourth among WRs in yards per route run on plays where the QB isn’t pressured. This happens often with the Broncos’ offensive line allowing the sixth-lowest pressure rate in football and seventh-lowest quick pressure rate. This matchup will be vital for Denver to remain competitive offensively. When pressured, Denver ranks 26th in EPA versus 18th when not pressured.
The Bills don’t get pressure on the quarterback in the aggregate, ranking 23rd in pressure rate. Part of this, though, could be that teams average a time to throw of 2.77 seconds against them. That is ninth-quickest in the league and a 63rd-percentile outcome, which suggests teams erase the Bills’ defensive line with quick throws and schemes.
To adjust for the time to throw, you can look at the quick pressure rate, which is defined as 2.5 seconds or less. The Bills rank 10th in quick pressure rate, pressuring the QB in under 2.5 seconds on 18.8% of dropbacks.
Offensively, the Bills rank second in EPA per play, ninth in success rate, fifth in explosive passing rate, and 12th in explosive rushing rate. Despite losing Stefon Diggs and the media considering this to be a “retooling” year, Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP and is the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
One of the most impressive feats of their offense is the fact that they have the fifth-most spread-out target distribution in the league. In other words, they don’t force-feed a star receiver. They just let Allen cook. The Bills are also the only team in the league with a positive EPA under pressure and are first in EPA when blitzed.
This should prove to be a difficult matchup for Denver’s defense, which ranks third in blitz rate and second in pressure rate. Overall, Denver ranks first in defensive EPA per play, first in success rate, 12th in explosive passing rate allowed, and fourth in explosive passing rate allowed.
Denver’s defense’s biggest issue when facing Allen will be his scrambling ability. Denver is 13th in defensive scrambling EPA, meaning its defense drops from the best in the league to around average when facing a scrambling quarterback. Even worse, it ranks first in defensive EPA gained from sacks, something Allen is historically great at preventing.
Since 2000, only 11 teams have a lower sack rate than the Bills this season. Another way to put it: The Bills’ time to throw this season is 2.92 seconds, good for the 98th-longest out of 768 teams since 2000. Among the 110 teams above 2.90 seconds, the Bills rank first in lowest sack rate. The closest to them was still 1.3% more.
In general, the Broncos have put together quite the season. If it wasn’t for the Bills as their matchup in the first round, I would give them a fighter’s chance to win the game. Unfortunately, Allen is special, and that will be enough to make the difference.
My pick: Bills -8.5