Calling all bettors! The 2022 Denver Broncos were expected to compete for a Super Bowl, despite being in the fierce AFC West. Things didn’t go as planned.
How dramatically might they improve in 2023 in their quest for a title? More pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL draft impact their championship hopes? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorite (+650 odds) for the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, weren’t even in the top third.
The Washington Commanders weren’t on the radar. They were coming off a campaign where “starting” QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was knocked out in Week 1, and two of their three top pass catchers (Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas) missed a combined 21 games. No doubt, it was a team in transition, although they have two offensive anchors in Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin.
At the time, Denver was expected to upgrade at QB — supposedly, the missing piece for a championship run. Landing nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson seemed like a coup. Even in his “bad,” injury-plagued previous season at Seattle, Wilson mixed in a sterling 25-6 TD-INT clip with just enough running to demonstrate he remained a dual-threat option, even at age 33.
Denver’s Super Bowl 57 odds edged upward to +1680 (eighth best) on the eve of Week 1. Of course, things didn’t go as planned. Heading into next season, they’re currently 12th best at +3000 odds to win Super Bowl 58. As we assess if bettors should lean into these +3000 odds, let’s examine a few key takeaways from the Broncos’ 2022 campaign.
Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
That Denver’s first game was on the road against Wilson’s old team seemed like icing on the cake. Wilson seemed destined to shine — to prove to former head coach Pete Carroll, teammates, and fans that while Seattle was stuck in rebuilding mode, the Broncos were a team on the rise.
That first game defined the rest of the season for both squads, beginning a shocking upward trajectory for Geno Smith and the Seahawks, and an equally shocking collapse for an offense that was, on paper, seemingly great.
The funny thing is, Wilson actually played well in that opener, completing 29 of 42 passes for 340 yards and a TD. Of his eight offensive drives, six reached Seattle’s 22-yard line or closer. One resulted in a touchdown, three in field goals, and two in fumbles at the Seahawks’ 1-yard line.
Wilson never threw for 300+ yards again. Uber-talented RB Javonte Williams was lost for the season in Week 4. The formerly reliable Melvin Gordon III was never the same after Week 2, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry before Denver cut him loose.
MORE: Denver Broncos Free Agency — What McGlinchey, Powers, and Stidham Deals Mean for Russell Wilson
Through it all, the 32-year-old Latavius Murray somehow played really well as the short-term bell cow. In an alternative universe, we might wonder how Williams might have fared if he’d stayed healthy.
We cannot overstate how good Williams is, and we cannot understate how much he might struggle in his first season after recovering from a torn ACL and LCL. When healthy in his first 21 NFL games, he had one broken tackle for every 6.8 carries. For context, since statisticians began tracking this, no RB has come close to matching that clip across two consecutive seasons.
As solid as Denver’s defense is, scoring the fewest points in the league won’t take you far. The story of the Broncos’ 2022 season is tied, in large part, to Wilson’s utter collapse and Williams’ season-ending injury. If both can get back on track in 2023, this could be a solid championship contender.
2023 Offseason Moves
The Broncos currently are projected to have $8.8 million in cap space, though that could change by the day. They also don’t have any first- or second-round draft picks. So they’ll need to get a bit creative this offseason as they work on a “win-now” roster.
NFL Free Agency
March 15 Update: Denver lands a much-needed RB in Samaje Perine. I took some flack last season for writing that Perine often looked better than Joe Mixon. I continue to stand by those statements. With the recovering Javonte Williams likely to be eased back in, Perine brings spot-starter experience and in-his-prime talent to a team desperate for reliable playmakers.
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on other key Broncos arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to somehow win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Broncos draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult them into Super Bowl consideration.