The Denver Broncos‘ playoff chances and potential scenarios took a huge hit last week with their Sunday Night Football loss. With the Kansas City Chiefs losing the next day, the Broncos must be kicking themselves for not being in a better position entering Week 17. The Broncos now need to be perfect in the next two weeks to have any chance of making the playoffs.
Denver Broncos Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 at 7:55 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Denver Broncos have been eliminated from the playoffs.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Broncos entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 17?
Simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor give the Broncos a less than 10% chance of making the playoffs this season.
Around 3% of the simulations had them winning the division, with around a further five percent having them making the postseason in a Wild Card berth.
In terms of the division, the equation is simple: be perfect and hope the Chiefs continue to fall over themselves. With two weeks left to play, the Broncos are two games behind the Chiefs, so they need the maximum swing possible to win the division.
The positive outlook on it for the Broncos is that if they go 2-0 and the Chiefs go 0-2, they are division champions regardless of any other results. Denver would eliminate the Las Vegas Raiders from the division potential in Week 18 with a win. Denver would then have a superior division record to the Chiefs and take the crown.
Even when we look at the Wild Card picture, the Broncos have to be perfect and hope for help. A loss this week would eliminate them from contention, but there are also combinations where even if Denver wins, they are eliminated from the playoffs.
The problem for the Broncos is that the Cleveland Browns have already clinched one of the three Wild Card spots, and the Bills would put themselves out of reach for the second spot with 9.5 or 10 wins if they win or tie this week.
MORE: Denver Broncos Depth Chart
That would leave just one spot available for the Broncos, and they have some NFL playoff tiebreakers they cannot overcome.
The Broncos have lost to the Houston Texans, so in a two-way tiebreaker, Houston would be assured of finishing above them. A win for Pittsburgh would give them an unassailable lead in tiebreakers down to Strength of Victory, locking the Broncos out of another spot.
Here are the full elimination scenarios for the Broncos this week:
- Denver loses
- Denver tie + Jacksonville win or tie
- Denver tie + Indianapolis win or tie + Houston win or tie
- Denver tie + Pittsburgh win or tie
- Denver tie + Cincinnati win
- Kansas City win or tie + Buffalo win or tie + Pittsburgh win
- Kansas City win or tie + Buffalo win or tie + Houston win + Indianapolis win + Jacksonville lose or tie
- Kansas City win or tie + Houston win + Indianapolis win + Jacksonville lose or tie + Pittsburgh win
At this stage, all Denver can really do is try to go 2-0 and hope the cards fall nicely for them. Entering Week 18, there will be a much clearer picture of the Broncos’ potential playoff scenarios in the AFC Wild Card picture.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!